Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 representation of peak and end of rainy season over Upper Blue Nile basin
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and 6 representation of peak and end of rainy season over Upper Blue Nile basin
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耦合模型比对项目第 5 期和第 6 期代表青尼罗河上游流域雨季高峰和结束情况
DOI：
10.1002/joc.7736
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Vashisht, Amandeep
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fetene, Zewdu Alamineh;Zaitchik, Benjamin F.;Zeleke, Tadesse Terefe;Yeshita, Baylie Damtie;Vashisht, Amandeep
青尼罗河上游流域(UBN)对三个国家(埃塞俄比亚、苏丹和埃及)的水、食品和能源安全至关重要。它也是一个年际降水量变化很大的区域，并有可能在未来几十年发生重大气候变化。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)影响UBN降水的变异性和趋势，厄尔尼诺事件历来与低于平均水平的降雨量有关。在这方面，本研究力求：(A)与上一代模式(CMIP5)相比，检查第六次耦合模式相互比较项目(CMIP6)模拟中ENSO-UBN降水遥相关的表现；(B)区分雨季高峰期(7月至8月[JA])和农业关键季末降雨(9月至10月[SO])期间的遥相关；(C)调查热带东风急流(TEJ)在CMIP6与CMIP5以及峰雨量和雨季结束时调解这些遥相关的证据。使用一个高性能模式的子集，我们发现CMIP6对UBN降水的模拟对JA总降水量的偏差比CMIP5小，并且与ENSO的相关性在不同模式中变得更加一致，但CMIP5和CMIP6之间的差异不大。与CMIP5一样，CMIP6模拟高估了SO降雨量，并表明SO与ENSO的联系比观测所显示的更强。在CMIP5和CMIP6之间，TEJ的模式表示及其与ENSO和UBN降水的联系没有显示出系统的变化。在JA中，Tej的调停影响似乎比JA更重要。
The Upper Blue Nile river basin (uBN) is vital to three countries' water, food, and energy security (Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt). It is also a region with substantial interannual precipitation variability and the potential for significant climate change in coming decades. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects both variability and trends in uBN precipitation, with El Niño episodes historically connected with below‐average rainfall. In this context, this study seeks to: (a) examine the representation of ENSO–uBN rainfall teleconnections in simulations from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), as compared to the previous generation of models (CMIP5); (b) distinguish between teleconnections during the peak of the rainy season (July–August [JA]) and the agriculturally critical end‐of‐season rains (September–October [SO]); (c) investigate evidence for Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) mediation of these teleconnections in CMIP6 versus CMIP5 and for both peak rains and end of the rainy season. Using a subset of high performing models, we find that CMIP6 simulations of uBN precipitation show somewhat less bias than CMIP5 for JA total rainfall, and that correlations with ENSO have become more consistent across models, but that differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 are modest. CMIP6 simulations, like CMIP5, overestimate SO rainfall and suggest a stronger ENSO association in SO than is indicated by observations. Model representation of the TEJ and its association with both ENSO and uBN precipitation show no systematic change between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The mediating influence of the TEJ appears to be more important in JA than SO.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Gleixner, Stephanie;Keenlyside, Noel;Korecha, Diriba
通讯作者：
Korecha, Diriba
DOI：
10.1002/joc.6623
发表时间：
2020-06
期刊：
International Journal of Climatology
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Nicholson;D. Klotter
通讯作者：
S. Nicholson;D. Klotter
DOI：
10.1002/joc.4284
发表时间：
2015-11-30
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bhattacharjee, Partha S.;Zaitchik, Benjamin F.
通讯作者：
Zaitchik, Benjamin F.
DOI：
10.1623/hysj.53.1.3
发表时间：
2008-02-01
期刊：
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kundzewicz, Z. W.;Mata, L. J.;Shiklomanov, I.
通讯作者：
Shiklomanov, I.
带有站点的气候危害红外降水 - 一种新的环境记录，用于监测极端。
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Funk C;Peterson P;Landsfeld M;Pedreros D;Verdin J;Shukla S;Husak G;Rowland J;Harrison L;Hoell A;Michaelsen J
通讯作者：
Michaelsen J