Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world
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DOI：
10.1002/2016ef000485
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发表时间：
2017-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Feyen, Luc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alfieri, Lorenzo;Bisselink, Berny;Feyen, Luc
全球气温上升对理解大气变暖与自然灾害发生之间的联系造成了越来越大的压力。虽然《巴黎协定》设定了雄心勃勃的目标，将全球变暖限制在与工业化前水平相比1.5摄氏度的范围内，但科学家们仍被敦促探索不同变暖阈值的情景，并量化社会经济影响的范围。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个框架，以估计在全球范围内受河流洪水影响的经济损失和人口。该模型以涉及水文、水力和社会经济影响模拟的级联模型为基础，并利用最先进的全球灾害、风险和脆弱性层，网格分辨率为1公里。基于代表性浓度路径8.5的七个高分辨率全球气候预测的集合被用来在现在和未来的气候中获得径流模拟。分析这些数据是为了评估在全球变暖1.5摄氏度、2摄氏度和4摄氏度的情况下河流洪水的频率和规模及其影响。结果表明，在全球范围内，大气变暖与未来洪水风险之间存在明显的正相关关系。在全球变暖4摄氏度的情况下，占全球人口和全球国内生产总值70%以上的国家将面临超过500%的洪水风险。洪水风险的变化分布不均，亚洲、美国、和欧洲相比之下，在非洲和大洋洲的大多数国家，就所有考虑的升温水平而言，变化在统计上并不显著。
Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, and 4 degrees C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4 degrees C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.