Electricity supply reliability and households decision to connect to the grid
Electricity supply reliability and households decision to connect to the grid
复制标题
电力供应可靠性和家庭接入电网的决定
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Arnaud Millien
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnaud Millien
第七个可持续发展目标旨在“确保所有人获得负担得起的、可靠的、可持续的现代能源”。由于仅非洲增加电力容量的成本估计就达 8000 亿美元，因此本文研究了电力可靠性在多大程度上可以通过吸引更多客户来降低电网扩建的边际成本。本文使用闪电作为断电严重程度的工具，评估了这样的假设：电力可用性的不确定性较小将导致更多的联网家庭。文章发现，电力可靠性每提高 1 个百分点，连接数就会增加 0.67 个百分点。因此，提供完全可靠的电力将使电力公司能够比计划提前 15 个月实现客户群增长的目标。可靠性对中产阶级家庭的影响最大，他们在完全、严重或部分停电的情况下最不愿意订阅。可靠性每提升 1 个百分点，这些家庭联网的可能性就会增加 1.28 个百分点。本文还发现，在停电频率较低的地区，家庭对停电更加敏感。就成瘾而言，可靠性对家庭联网决定的影响可能比贫困的影响至少大 5%；如果停电频率太高，财富或贫困效应可能会消失，家庭只会对可靠性过低做出反应。这些结果证实了不确定性假设，即定期和严重的停电会产生不可保险的环境，从而阻止家庭订购电力服务。
The 7th Sustainable Development Goal aims to "ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all". Because the cost to increase electrical capacity in Africa alone has been estimated at $800bn, this article investigates the extent to which electricity reliability could contribute to a reduction in the marginal cost of grid extension by attracting more customers. Using lightning as an instrument for outages severity, the article evaluates the assumption that less uncertainty about electricity availability would lead to a larger number of connected households. The article finds that a one percentage point increase in electricity reliability would yield a 0.67 percentage point increase in connections. Therefore, delivering fully reliable electrical power would allow an electricity company to achieve its targeted growth of customer base 15 months earlier than planned. The effect of reliability is highest for middle-rich households, which are the most reluctant to subscribe in the presence of total, severe or partial outages. A one-percentage-point upgrade in reliability increase the likelihood that these households will be connected by 1.28 percentage points. This article also finds that households are more sensitive to outages in areas where outages are less frequent. In addiction, the impact of reliability on households decision to connect could be at least 5% greater than the effect of poverty; if the frequency of outages is too high, the wealth or poverty effect might vanish and households would respond only to the excessively low reliability. These results confirm the uncertainty assumption, that is, regular and severe outages yield an uninsurable context that deters households from subscribing to the electric service.