Climatic Study of the Marine Surface Wind Field over the Greek Seas with the Use of a High Resolution RCM Focusing on Extreme Winds
Climatic Study of the Marine Surface Wind Field over the Greek Seas with the Use of a High Resolution RCM Focusing on Extreme Winds
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使用专注于极端风的高分辨率 RCM 对希腊海域海洋表面风场进行气候研究
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Tolika
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Christos Vagenas;C. Anagnostopoulou;K. Tolika
本研究利用RegCM分析了希腊海域海面风场（10 m）。为了更有效地模拟希腊复杂的海岸线和众多岛屿，该模型的空间分辨率被动态地缩小到10公里× 10公里。生成1980-2000年和2080-2100年期间的风数据，并根据15个岛屿和沿海气象站的实际观测数据进行评估，以评估该模式再现地面风场主要特征的能力。RegCM模式在夏季对季节风速和风向的模拟能力较高，在寒冷期的模拟能力最低。使用百分位指数和三种峰值超过阈值（POT）技术估计极端风速阈值。利用三种POT方法的平均阈值对研究区极端风的年际分布进行了分析。在三个极点观察到最高阈值；位于爱琴海的东北部、东南部和西南部。未来极端速度的变化表明，爱琴海的极端速度普遍增加，而爱奥尼亚海的极限速度预计会降低。估算了20年、50年、100年和200年的回归水平。
The marine surface wind field (10 m) over the Greek seas is analyzed in this study using The RegCM. The model’s spatial resolution is dynamically downscaled to 10 km × 10 km, in order to simulate more efficiently the complex coastlines and the numerous islands of Greece. Wind data for the 1980–2000 and 2080–2100 periods are produced and evaluated against real observational data from 15 island and coastal meteorological stations in order to assess the model’s ability to reproduce the main characteristics of the surface wind fields. RegCM model shows a higher simulating skill to project seasonal wind speeds and direction during summer and the lowest simulating skill in the cold period of the year. Extreme wind speed thresholds were estimated using percentiles indices and three Peak Over Threshold (POT) techniques. The mean threshold values of the three POT methods are used to examine the inter-annual distribution of extreme winds in the study region. The highest thresholds were observed in three poles; the northeast, the southeast, and the southwest of Aegean Sea. Future changes in extreme speeds show a general increase in the Aegean Sea, while lower thresholds are expected in the Ionian Sea. Return levels for periods of 20, 50, 100, and 200 years are estimated.