Predicting the Risk of Psoriatic Arthritis in Plaque Psoriasis Patients: Development and Assessment of a New Predictive Nomogram.
Predicting the Risk of Psoriatic Arthritis in Plaque Psoriasis Patients: Development and Assessment of a New Predictive Nomogram.
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预测斑块状银屑病患者患银屑病关节炎的风险：新的预测列线图的开发和评估
DOI：
10.3389/fimmu.2021.740968
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
Chen X
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu P;Kuang Y;Ye L;Peng C;Chen W;Shen M;Zhang M;Zhu W;Lv C;Chen X
本研究旨在建立斑块型银屑病患者银屑病关节炎（PsA）风险预测模型。研究招募了斑块型银屑病或PsA患者。收集患者的特征、皮损及甲部临床表现。采用最小绝对收缩率优化特征选择，采用logistic回归分析进一步选择特征，构建PsA风险预测模型。通过校正图、c指数、曲线下面积（AUC）和决策曲线分析，评价预测模型的校正、鉴别和临床应用。使用引导验证执行内部验证。该模型通过两个单独的队列进行外部验证。发病年龄、持续时间、指甲受累、月牙红斑、甲裂、滴油和趾下角化过度被认为是预测因素。预测模型具有良好的校准和判别性（C-index: 0.759; 95% CI: 0.707 ~ 0.811）。该预测模型的AUC为0.7578092。c指数在内部验证和外部队列验证中均表现优异（0.741,0.844,0.845）。决策曲线表明PsA谱图对指导临床有较好的效果。这种新型的PsA谱图能够较好地评估斑块型银屑病患者PsA的发生风险。
This study aimed to develop a risk of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) predictive model for plaque psoriasis patients based on the available features. Patients with plaque psoriasis or PsA were recruited. The characteristics, skin lesions, and nail clinical manifestations of the patients have been collected. The least absolute shrinkage was used to optimize feature selection, and logistic regression analysis was applied to further select features and build a PsA risk predictive model. Calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility of the prediction model were evaluated by using the calibration plot, C-index, the area under the curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis. Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping validation. The model was subjected to external validation with two separate cohorts. Age at onset, duration, nail involvement, erythematous lunula, onychorrhexis, oil drop, and subungual hyperkeratosis were presented as predictors to perform the prediction nomogram. The predictive model showed good calibration and discrimination (C-index: 0.759; 95% CI: 0.707–0.811). The AUC of this prediction model was 0.7578092. Excellent performances of the C-index were reached in the internal validation and external cohort validation (0.741, 0.844, and 0.845). The decision curve indicated good effect of the PsA nomogram in guiding clinical practice. This novel PsA nomogram could assess the risk of PsA in plaque psoriasis patients with good efficiency.
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影响因子：
27.4
作者：
Haroon, Muhammad;Gallagher, Phil;FitzGerald, Oliver
通讯作者：
FitzGerald, Oliver
影响因子：
13.3
作者：
Eder, Lihi;Haddad, Amir;Gladman, Dafna D.
通讯作者：
Gladman, Dafna D.
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Aydin, Sibel Z.;Castillo-Gallego, Concepcion;McGonagle, Dennis
通讯作者：
McGonagle, Dennis
影响因子：
2
作者：
Pencina, MJ;D'Agostino, RB
通讯作者：
D'Agostino, RB
DOI：
10.1111/rssb.12108
发表时间：
2016-01
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lee S;Seo MH;Shin Y
通讯作者：
Shin Y