Cognition in the woods: Biases in probability judgments by search and rescue planners
Cognition in the woods: Biases in probability judgments by search and rescue planners
复制标题
森林中的认知：搜救计划者概率判断的偏差
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Kenneth A. Hill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kenneth A. Hill
一种尚未得到研究关注的紧急决策类型是警察在农村或荒野地区寻找失踪者。对于许多这样的事件，关于在哪里寻找失踪的主体的决定是由一个计划小组做出的，该计划小组的每个成员分配关于主体可能位于何处的各种假设的概率，包括主体完全在其他地方的剩余假设，即在指定的搜索区域之外。在目前的研究中，32名有搜索计划经验的成年男性被要求为一个虚构的失踪事件分配概率。根据支持理论（Tversky & Koehler, 1994），假设受试者首先考虑了五种可能的情景，说明受试者如何离开搜索区域。与那些解压缩焦点假设的受试者相比，解压缩剩余假设的受试者随后会增加他们对失踪受试者不在指定搜索区域的全局假设的概率估计。这一假设得到了证实。我们还发现了相当多的亚可加性的证据，因为大多数受试者分别对焦点假设和剩余假设的个体情景估计了更高的总概率。讨论了在失踪人员事件中这种拆包效应的潜在负面后果，并描述了减轻这种影响的可能方法。
A type of emergency decision-making which has not received research attention is the police search for a lost person in a rural or wilderness area. For many such incidents, decisions concerning where to search for the lost subject are made by a planning team, each member of which assigns probabilities to the various hypotheses about where the subject might be located, including the residual hypothesis that the subject is somewhere else entirely, that is, outside of the designated search area. In the current study, 32 adult males with search planning experience were asked to assign probabilities to a fictional lost person incident. It was hypothesized, according to support theory (Tversky & Koehler, 1994), that subjects who first considered the five possible scenarios accounting for how the subject could have left the search area—i.e., unpacked the residual hypothesis—would subsequently increase their probability estimate of the global hypothesis that the missing subject was not in the designated search area, compared to those subjects who unpacked the focal hypothesis. This hypothesis was confirmed. We also found considerable evidence for subadditivity, as most subjects estimated higher summed probabilities for the individual scenarios accounting for the focal and residual hypotheses, respectively. The potential negative consequences of such unpacking effects during a lost person incident were discussed, and possible means of mitigating such effects were described.
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Rottenstreich, Y;Tversky, A
通讯作者：
Tversky, A