Forecasting Changes in the Hurricane Wind Vulnerability of a Regional Inventory of Wood-Frame Houses
Forecasting Changes in the Hurricane Wind Vulnerability of a Regional Inventory of Wood-Frame Houses
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)1076-0342(2007)13:1(31
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发表时间：
2007-03-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Davidson, Rachel A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jain, Vineet Kumar;Davidson, Rachel A.
目前的区域飓风损失估计模型在预测未来损失时使用建筑物库存的当前脆弱性，并假设它在整个感兴趣的时间范围内保持不变。事实上，由于建筑物类型和条件的变化，一个地区的飓风脆弱性会随着时间而变化。因此，损失估计模型可能会错误估计风险，基于这些损失估计的缓解计划的有效性可能会受到影响。在本文中，作者开发了一个区域脆弱性变化模型，以估计随着时间的推移，在飓风风脆弱性的区域库存的木结构房屋。该模型集成了五种类型的变化，不断变化的建筑规范，不断变化的技术，建筑拆除和建设，结构老化，升级改造的努力，在一个模拟框架的影响，预测一个地区的脆弱性的变化。射弹撞击、倒下的树木和洪水目前没有考虑在内。对北卡罗来纳州新汉诺威县的单层、山形屋顶、木结构建筑进行了案例研究，2000-2020年期间。结果描述了估计的整体变化的飓风风的脆弱性，五种类型的变化，敏感性分析的相对贡献，以及一个假设的“如果”缓解方案对区域脆弱性的演变的长期影响。
Current regional hurricane loss estimation models use the present-day vulnerability of the building inventory in predicting future losses and assume that it remains static throughout the time horizon of interest. In reality, the hurricane vulnerability of a region changes with time due to changes in the types and conditions of buildings. Loss estimation models, therefore, may misestimate risk and the effectiveness of mitigation plans based on these loss estimates may be compromised. In this paper, the writers develop a regional vulnerability change model to estimate changes over time in the hurricane wind vulnerability of a regional inventory of wood-frame houses. The model integrates the effects of five types of changes-changing building codes, changing technologies, building demolition and construction, structural aging, and upgrading efforts-in a simulation framework to forecast changes in the vulnerability of a region. Projectile impacts, falling trees, and flooding are not considered currently. A case study application of the model was conducted for one-story, gable roof, wood buildings in New Hanover County, N.C., for the period 2000-2020. Results describe the estimated overall change in the hurricane wind vulnerability, the relative contributions of the five types of change, a sensitivity analysis, and the long-term effects of a hypothetical "what-if" mitigation scenario on the evolution of regional vulnerability.