Hydrological Response and Complex Impact Pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in Eastern and Southern Africa
Hydrological Response and Complex Impact Pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in Eastern and Southern Africa
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DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000680
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发表时间：
2018-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Siderius;K. Gannon;M. Ndiyoi;A. Opere;N. Batisani;D. Olago;J. Pardoe;D. Conway
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Siderius;K. Gannon;M. Ndiyoi;A. Opere;N. Batisani;D. Olago;J. Pardoe;D. Conway
2015/2016年厄尔尼诺Niño被列为有记录以来最严重的三次之一。El Niño遥相关通常与南部非洲的干旱和东部非洲的高降水有关。尽管它们的发生相对频繁，但关于其水文效应和农业以外影响的证据有限。我们研究了2015/2016年厄尔尼诺Niño在非洲东部和南部的水文响应和影响途径，重点是博茨瓦纳、肯尼亚和赞比亚。我们使用了降水、河流流量和湖泊水位的原位和遥感时间序列，并辅以对每个国家主要组织的访谈得出的关于意识、影响和响应的定性见解。我们的研究结果表明，非洲南部大部分地区普遍存在干旱状况，减少了径流，并导致博茨瓦纳和赞比亚的湖泊水位异常低。主要线人通过博茨瓦纳创纪录的高温和供水中断以及赞比亚的水力发电负荷减少来描述这次El Niño。肯尼亚发布了洪水风险预警，但El Niño的远程连接并没有像2015/2016年预期的那样实现。极端降水是有限的，造成局部影响。南部非洲的水文影响是严重和复杂的，由于先前的干旱条件、最近暴露和敏感性的变化以及管理决定而大大加剧。提高对水文响应和不同影响途径复杂性的理解，可以支持设计更具适应性、区域特异性的管理策略。
The 2015/2016 El Niño has been classified as one of the three most severe on record. El Niño teleconnections are commonly associated with droughts in southern Africa and high precipitation in eastern Africa. Despite their relatively frequent occurrence, evidence for their hydrological effects and impacts beyond agriculture is limited. We examine the hydrological response and impact pathways of the 2015/2016 El Niño in eastern and southern Africa, focusing on Botswana, Kenya, and Zambia. We use in situ and remotely sensed time series of precipitation, river flow, and lake levels complemented by qualitative insights from interviews with key organizations in each country about awareness, impacts, and responses. Our results show that drought conditions prevailed in large parts of southern Africa, reducing runoff and contributing to unusually low lake levels in Botswana and Zambia. Key informants characterized this El Niño through record high temperatures and water supply disruption in Botswana and through hydroelectric load shedding in Zambia. Warnings of flood risk in Kenya were pronounced, but the El Niño teleconnection did not materialize as expected in 2015/2016. Extreme precipitation was limited and caused localized impacts. The hydrological impacts in southern Africa were severe and complex, strongly exacerbated by dry antecedent conditions, recent changes in exposure and sensitivity and management decisions. Improved understanding of hydrological responses and the complexity of differing impact pathways can support design of more adaptive, region‐specific management strategies.