Anthropogenic influence on the intensity of extreme precipitation in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in HadGEM3-A-N216
Anthropogenic influence on the intensity of extreme precipitation in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in HadGEM3-A-N216
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HadGEM3-A-N216 人为对亚澳季风区极端降水强度的影响
DOI：
10.1002/asl.1036
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Feng Guolin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu Jieyu;Qiao Shaobo;Li Chao;Tang Shankai;Chen Dong;Feng Guolin
亚洲-澳大利亚季风（AAM）地区的特点是夏季季风降雨丰富，为该地区的高密度人口提供了淡水资源。该研究使用HadGEM3‐A‐N216模式模拟，比较了在有和没有人为影响的情况下AAM地区极端降雨强度的变化。虽然人为强迫对极端降水的气候平均分布影响较弱，但显著增加了东亚大部分地区，特别是东亚北部、孟加拉湾和澳大利亚的极端降水强度。随着极端度的增加，东亚北部、孟加拉湾和澳大利亚的极端降水强度增加越来越快，而东亚南部的极端降水强度则由减少趋势转为增加趋势。总体而言，在人为强迫作用下，极端降水越强，增长趋势越强。
The Asian‐Australian monsoon (AAM) region is characterized as abundant summer monsoon rainfall, which provides fresh water resources for high‐density population there. The research uses HadGEM3‐A‐N216 model simulations to compare the change of extreme rainfall intensity in the AAM region with and without anthropogenic influences. Although the anthropogenic forcing exerts a weak impact on the climatological mean distribution of the extreme precipitation, it significantly increases the extreme precipitation intensity at each degree in most parts of the AAM region, especially for the northern East Asia, the Bay of Bengal, and Australia. As the extreme degree increases from the 50–98%, the extreme precipitation intensity in the northern East Asia, the Bay of Bengal, and the Australia increase more and more rapidly, while that in the southern East Asia changes from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend. Overall, the stronger extreme precipitation is accompanied by a stronger growth trend under the anthropogenic forcing.