Emergent properties in the responses of tropical corals to recurrent climate extremes
Emergent properties in the responses of tropical corals to recurrent climate extremes
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DOI：
10.1016/j.cub.2021.10.046
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发表时间：
2021-12-06
期刊：
影响因子：
9.2
通讯作者：
Moneghetti, Joanne
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hughes, Terry P.;Kerry, James T.;Moneghetti, Joanne
由于人为的全球变暖，极端气候的频率、强度和空间尺度正在迅速变化。（1，2）一个日益增长的研究挑战是了解多个气候驱动的扰动如何在数十年的时间框架内相互作用，产生无法单独从单个事件预测的综合效应。(3-5)在这里，我们研究了沿着2,300公里长的大堡礁的五个珊瑚漂白事件的紧急动态，这些事件在1998年至2020年期间影响了大堡礁的98%以上。我们发现，在每个事件中，珊瑚对给定水平的热暴露的漂白反应是不同的，并受到偶然性和事件之间的相互作用的空间重叠和强度的强烈影响。那些在十年或更长时间内没有被漂白的原始区域最容易受到热暴露的影响。相反，当连续的漂白事件对接近在一起（1-3年），严重漂白的热阈值增加，因为早期的事件硬化大堡礁地区进一步的影响。在不久的将来，生物反应经常漂白事件可能会变得更强的累积的地理足迹进一步扩大，可能会损害的股票之间的招聘关系，轻度和严重漂白珊瑚礁与不同的近期历史。了解经常性干扰的突发特性和集体动态对于预测空间避难所和累积生态响应以及管理人为气候变化对生态系统的长期影响至关重要。
The frequency, intensity, and spatial scale of climate extremes are changing rapidly due to anthropogenic global warming.(1,2) A growing research challenge is to understand how multiple climate-driven disturbances interact with each other over multi-decadal time frames, generating combined effects that cannot be predicted from single events alone.(3-5) Here we examine the emergent dynamics of five coral bleaching events along the 2,300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef that affected >98% of the Reef between 1998 and 2020. We show that the bleaching responses of corals to a given level of heat exposure differed in each event and were strongly influenced by contingency and the spatial overlap and strength of interactions between events. Naive regions that escaped bleaching for a decade or longer were the most susceptible to bouts of heat exposure. Conversely, when pairs of successive bleaching episodes were close together (1-3 years apart), the thermal threshold for severe bleaching increased because the earlier event hardened regions of the Great Barrier Reef to further impacts. In the near future, the biological responses to recurrent bleaching events may become stronger as the cumulative geographic footprint expands further, potentially impairing the stock-recruitment relationships among lightly and severely bleached reefs with diverse recent histories. Understanding the emergent properties and collective dynamics of recurrent disturbances will be critical for predicting spatial refuges and cumulative ecological responses, and for managing the longer-term impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems.