An updated USACE approach to the evaluation of coastal total water levels for present and future flood risk analysis
An updated USACE approach to the evaluation of coastal total water levels for present and future flood risk analysis
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更新的美国陆军工程兵团评估沿海总水位的方法，用于当前和未来的洪水风险分析
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Gouldby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Moritz;K. White;B. Gouldby
USACE的沿海任务、行动、计划和项目必须能够适应各种可预见的水位，包括极端水位，以及这些水位可能在项目所在地引起的不断变化的条件。水位范围、极端事件的量级和频率都将影响给定项目的稳定性、运行和性能。了解总水位的哪个组成部分或组成部分的组合控制性能（以及在什么时间尺度）对于项目的设计和评估至关重要。了解不同的跨海岸区域的总水位计算和影响，为风险和影响评估提供信息。对整个项目寿命期内的未来条件进行估计时认识到，随着时间的推移，对总水位的贡献既有固定的，也有非固定的，因此有必要在项目替代发展中考虑各种设想方案。适应性管理方法提供了一个处理未来不确定性的过程，涉及制定设想各种未来的计划，纳入持续监测，并允许从一种方法过渡到另一种方法。确定稳定性或性能受到不利影响的阈值是了解当前和未来水位脆弱性的重要方法，特别是在洪水风险使命区域内。正在制定的USACE总水位工程技术信函（ETL）将指导如何评估USACE沿海任务的总水位。
USACE coastal missions, operations, programs, and projects must be resilient to the full range of forseeable water levels, including extreme water levels, as well as the changing conditions that those water levels can induce at a project location. Water level range, magnitude of extremes, and frequency will all contribute to the stability, operation, and performance of a given project. Understanding which component of total water level or combination of components controls performance (and at what time scale) is critical to the design and evaluation of a project. Being aware of the different cross shore zones of total water level calculation and impacts informs exposure and impact assessments. Estimating future conditions over the project life recognizes that there will be both stationary and nonstationary contributions to the total water level (TWL) over time, necessitating the consideration of scenarios in project alternative development. An adaptive management approach provides a process for dealing with future uncertainties and involves developing plans that envisage a range of futures, incorporates ongoing monitoring, and permits transitions from one approach to another. Identifying thresholds beyond which stability or performance are adversely impacted is an important way to understand current and future vulnerability with respect to water levels, especially within the flood risk mission area. The USACE total water level Engineering Technical Letter (ETL) in development will guide how to evaluate total water levels for USACE coastal missions.