Local transmission processes and disease-driven host extinctions
Local transmission processes and disease-driven host extinctions
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DOI：
10.1007/s12080-011-0111-7
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发表时间：
2012-05-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Boots, Mike
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Best, Alex;Webb, Steve;Boots, Mike
经典的传染病理论假设传播取决于寄生虫的全球密度（对于直接传播疾病）或其全球频率（对于性传播疾病）。这种二分法的一个重要含义是，寄生虫驱动的主机灭绝的预测下，频率依赖的传输。然而，传播基本上是个体之间的局部过程，由个体和/或其媒介的行为决定。我们研究的影响，当地的传播过程的可能性，疾病驱动的主机灭绝。局部密度相关传输可导致寄生驱动的消光，但消光更可能在局部频率相关传输下，并且当存在活跃的局部搜索行为时更可能。因此，在当地传播的密度依赖型直接传播疾病可导致确定性的宿主灭绝，但在当地传播的频率依赖型被动病媒传播疾病更有可能导致宿主灭绝。然而，最有可能导致宿主灭绝的是媒介或性伴侣之间的主动搜索行为。我们的工作强调，当地的过程是必不可少的，在确定寄生虫驱动的灭绝，和寄生虫在稀有物种灭绝的作用可能被低估，由于全球密度依赖性传输的经典假设。
Classic infectious disease theory assumes that transmission depends on either the global density of the parasite (for directly transmitted diseases) or its global frequency (for sexually transmitted diseases). One important implication of this dichotomy is that parasite-driven host extinction is only predicted under frequency-dependent transmission. However, transmission is fundamentally a local process between individuals that is determined by their and/or their vector's behaviour. We examine the implications of local transmission processes to the likelihood of disease-driven host extinction. Local density-dependent transmission can lead to parasite-driven extinction, but extinction is more likely under local frequency-dependent transmission and much more likely when there is active local searching behaviour. Density-dependent directly transmitted diseases spread locally can therefore lead to deterministic host extinction, but locally frequency-dependent passive vector-borne diseases are more likely to cause extinctions. However, it is active searching behaviour either by a vector or between sexual partners that is most likely to cause the host to go extinct. Our work emphasises that local processes are essential in determining parasite-driven extinctions, and the role of parasites in the extinction of rare species may have been underplayed due to the classic assumption of global density-dependent transmission.