Improved seasonal drought forecasts using reference evapotranspiration anomalies
Improved seasonal drought forecasts using reference evapotranspiration anomalies
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DOI：
10.1002/2015gl067009
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发表时间：
2016-01-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hobbins, Michael T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McEvoy, Daniel J.;Huntington, Justin L.;Hobbins, Michael T.
利用1982-2009年气候预报系统第2版（CFSv2）重新预报数据，对参考蒸散发（ET0；蒸发需求公式）异常进行了一种新的连续美国（CONUS）广泛评估。最近的研究表明，通过利用实际蒸散量和蒸散量之间的互补关系，蒸散量异常可以准确地代表干旱。在大部分CONUS地区，平均预测ET0的技能在5个月前均优于降水技能。干旱事件期间的蒸散量预测显示，1988年和1999年北美中部和东北部显著暖季干旱的分类技能较高，降水技能较低或不存在。在中至强厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件期间初始化CFSv2预报时，几个气候区发现ET0技能增加。研究结果表明，ET0异常预报可以完善和补充现有的季节性干旱预报。
A novel contiguous United States (CONUS) wide evaluation of reference evapotranspiration (ET0; a formulation of evaporative demand) anomalies is performed using the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) reforecast data for 1982-2009. This evaluation was motivated by recent research showing ET0 anomalies can accurately represent drought through exploitation of the complementary relationship between actual evapotranspiration and ET0. Moderate forecast skill of ET0 was found up to leads of 5months and was consistently better than precipitation skill over most of CONUS. Forecasts of ET0 during drought events revealed high categorical skill for notable warm-season droughts of 1988 and 1999 in the central and northeast CONUS, with precipitation skill being much lower or absent. Increased ET0 skill was found in several climate regions when CFSv2 forecasts were initialized during moderate-to-strong El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. Our findings suggest that ET0 anomaly forecasts can improve and complement existing seasonal drought forecasts.