Spatial simulation of malaria transmission and its control by malaria transmission blocking vaccination
Spatial simulation of malaria transmission and its control by malaria transmission blocking vaccination
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DOI：
10.1016/s0020-7519(02)00190-x
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发表时间：
2002-12-04
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Carter, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carter, R
简单、直观地展示了疟疾传播在时间上的连续快照的空间方面。模拟的空间部分包括：(I)确定确定形状和面积的蚊子媒介滋生地点；(Ii)确定由媒介滋生地点的形状和面积以及蚊子散布这些地点与这些地点的距离确定的疟疾传播区；(Iii)相对于疟疾传播区分散的人口；(Iv)每个人周围可由当地媒介蚊子传播其感染的周长。在疟疾传播区内的传播强度是由一个数字给出的，该数字是每个现有病例在感染期间将通过人口传播的疟疾新病例数量。模拟已经在这里被用来检验接种疫苗以防止疟疾传播的效果。地方性疟疾和流行性疟疾下有不同程度的疫苗覆盖率。还审查了疟疾传播区全部或部分覆盖的后果。这些结果与以前对疟疾传播和干预的简单数学模拟的预测在数字上是一致的。目前的模拟使疟疾传播的性质和干预措施的效果能够轻松和直接地传达给受众。它在与卫生规划者讨论疟疾控制战略方面可能具有实用价值。(C)2002年，爱思唯尔科学有限公司代表澳大利亚寄生虫学学会出版。
A simple, visual representation of spatial aspects of malaria transmission in successive snap-shots in time, is presented. The spatial components of the simulation involve (i) the identification of mosquito vector breeding sites of defined shape and area, (ii) the identification of a zone of malaria transmission determined by the shapes and areas of the vector breeding sites and the distance from these sites that the mosquitoes disperse, (iii) a human population dispersed in relation to the malaria transmission zone, (iv) perimeters around each individual human within which his or her infection can be transmitted by the local vector mosquitoes. The intensity of transmission within a malaria transmission zone is given by a number which is the number of new cases of malaria that each existing case will distribute through the human population within the duration of an infection. The simulation has been used here to examine the effects of vaccination against malaria transmission. Different levels of vaccine coverage are represented under endemic and epidemic malaria. The consequences of full or partial coverage of a zone of malaria transmission are also examined. The results are numerically compatible with the predictions of previous simple mathematical simulations of malaria transmission and interventions. The present simulation allows the nature of malaria transmission and the effects of interventions to be communicated easily and directly to an audience. It could have practical value in discussions of malaria control strategies with health planners. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. on behalf of Australian Society for Parasitology Inc.