Risk stratification for predicting 30-day mortality of intracerebral hemorrhage
Risk stratification for predicting 30-day mortality of intracerebral hemorrhage
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DOI：
10.1093/intqhc/mzp041
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发表时间：
2009-12-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Peng, Shih-Yen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chuang, Ya-Ching;Chen, Yung-Ming;Peng, Shih-Yen
本研究的目的是使用初始评估数据开发一个分级量表，用于预测自发性脑出血（ICH）的 30 天死亡率。使用单变量和多变量 Logistic 回归模型来识别独立危险因素，并构建预测 ICH 结果的分级量表。台湾台中荣民总医院。2006 年 1 月 1 日至 2006 年 1 月 1 日至2007年12月31日，开发了简化的ICH评分（sICH评分），用于预测ICH 30天死亡率。通过测量准确性、敏感性、特异性和受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）来确定预测模型的判别力。sICH评分的准确性为80.5%，敏感性为82.5%，特异性为80.2%。 AUC 如下： sICH 评分，0.89 (0.84-0.94)； ICH 评分为 0.74 (0.65-0.83)，ICH-GS 为 0.74 (0.65-0.83)。sICH 评分在测试模型中显示出最佳区分度。此外，没有接受过神经病学或放射学特殊培训的医生也更容易使用该量表。 sICH 评分具有统计能力和易用性，是非常适合自发性 ICH 风险分层的模型。
The aim of this study was to develop a grading scale for predicting the 30-day mortality of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) using initial evaluation data.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify independent risk factors and to construct a grading scale for predicting the outcome of ICH.The Taichung Veterans General Hospital in Taichung, Taiwan.Two hundred and ninety-three patients were diagnosed with spontaneous ICH between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2007.Development of the simplified ICH score (sICH score) for predicting the 30-day mortality of ICH.The discrimination of the prediction model was determined by measuring the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC).The accuracy of the sICH score was 80.5%, the sensitivity was 82.5% and the specificity was 80.2%. The AUCs are as follows: sICH score, 0.89 (0.84-0.94); ICH score, 0.74 (0.65-0.83) and ICH-GS, 0.74 (0.65-0.83).The sICH score showed best discrimination among tested models. Also, it was easier for physicians without special training in neurology or radiology to use this scale. With statistical power and ease of use, the sICH score is a very suitable model for risk stratification of spontaneous ICH.