Is Bhutan destined for 100% organic? Assessing the economy-wide effects of a large-scale conversion policy
Is Bhutan destined for 100% organic? Assessing the economy-wide effects of a large-scale conversion policy
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%20不丹%20注定%20用于%20100%%20有机吗？%20评估%20%20整个经济%20影响%20的%20a%20大规模%20转换%20政策
作者：
A. Feuerbacher;Jonas Luckmann;O. Boysen;S. Zikeli;H. Grethe
有机农业（OA）被认为是一种使农业更加可持续的战略。不丹已经实现了成为世界上第一个 100% 有机国家的雄心勃勃的目标。通过分析不丹最近的农场数据，我们发现有机作物产量平均比传统作物产量低 24%。基于这些产量差距，我们采用整个经济范围内的可计算一般均衡 (CGE) 模型来评估 100% 有机转化政策的影响，该模型详细描述了不丹农业部门（包括农业生态区、作物养分和田间作业）。尽管自该倡议开始以来，不丹对农用化学品的依赖程度较低，但我们发现不丹的国内生产总值大幅下降，福利损失巨大，特别是对非农业家庭而言，并对粮食安全产生了不利影响。产量差距是国内农业产量大幅下降的主要驱动因素，而国内农业产量大幅下降主要是通过粮食进口增加来弥补的，从而导致该国谷物自给自足能力减弱。不丹目前默认的有机农业实践仍然不发达，并且没有应用 IFOAM 有机农业标准中定义的有机农业系统方法。这反映在我们的模拟中作物可用氮 (N) 的急剧下降，并且具有增加 OA 产量的潜力。改善土壤肥力实践，例如采用固氮作物、通过增加动物粪便供应来改善畜牧系统以及以溢价进入有机产品市场，可能有助于降低大规模转化的经济成本。
Organic agriculture (OA) is considered a strategy to make agriculture more sustainable. Bhutan has embraced the ambitious goal of becoming the world’s first 100% organic nation. By analysing recent on-farm data in Bhutan, we found organic crop yields on average to be 24% lower than conventional yields. Based on these yield gaps, we assess the effects of the 100% organic conversion policy by employing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with detailed representation of Bhutan’s agricultural sector incorporating agroecological zones, crop nutrients, and field operations. Despite a low dependency on agrochemicals from the onset of this initiative, we find a considerable reduction in Bhutan’s GDP, substantial welfare losses, particularly for non-agricultural households, and adverse impacts on food security. The yield gap is the main driver for a strong decline in domestic agricultural production, which is largely compensated by increased food imports, resulting in a weakening of the country’s cereal self-sufficiency. Current organic by default farming practices in Bhutan are still underdeveloped and do not apply the systems approach of organic farming as defined in the IFOAM organic farming standards. This is reflected in the strong decline of nitrogen (N) availability to crops in our simulation and bears potential for increased yields in OA. Improvement of soil-fertility practices, e.g., the adoption of N-fixing crops, improved animal husbandry systems with increased provision of animal manure and access to markets with price premium for organic products could help to lower the economic cost of the large-scale conversion.