Expected Accuracy Range of Cost Estimates for Small Modular Reactors at the Early Concept Design Stage
Expected Accuracy Range of Cost Estimates for Small Modular Reactors at the Early Concept Design Stage
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小型模块化反应堆早期概念设计阶段成本估算的预期准确度范围
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Newnes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Agar;A. Fry;M. Goodfellow;Y. Goh;L. Newnes
生命周期成本是新型发电技术开发和选择的重要考虑因素。由于后期设计变更、主要部件采购问题以及监管强制变更导致的延误，大型核电站 (NPP) 一直面临着资本成本上升的问题。这些因素导致了与千兆瓦级“第三代+”设计相关的巨大风险溢价，从而产生了巨大的融资成本。对于自由化市场和较小经济体的许多公用事业投资者来说，大型核电站的成本过高。
降低前期资本成本的挑战是推动创新型小型模块化反应堆 (SMR) 发展的要求之一。据称，这些设计可以降低单位成本，并由于交付的确定性而降低风险，这可能会降低公用事业客户的资本成本。通过提供更具成本确定性的产品，SMR 可以恢复投资者对核电的信心。与不同 SMR 设计相关的生命周期成本估算在开发的早期阶段是不确定的。然而，设计人员需要有信心地了解早期开发阶段的技术决策对生命周期成本的影响。
本研究概述了与 SMR 早期设计阶段相关的成本不确定性。概念设计阶段可用的成本估算方法类型根据其预期精度范围进行识别和分类。隔夜施工成本 (OCC) 是发电项目生命周期成本的重要驱动因素。每种估算方法的预期精度范围用于说明成本不确定性对设计成熟度水平的敏感性。通过了解成本不确定性的来源和影响，可以优化产品开发过程中的决策，以满足技术和商业要求。
Life cycle cost is an important consideration for the development and selection of new power generation technology. Large nuclear power plants (NPPs) have been subject to capital cost escalation, stemming from delays related to late design changes, procurement issues for major components, and regulatory enforced changes. These factors have contributed to the significant risk premium associated with gigawatt scale “Gen III+” designs, which have incurred significant financing costs. Large NPPs have become prohibitively expensive for many utility investors in liberalized markets and smaller economies.
The challenge of reducing upfront capital costs is one of the requirements that have driven the development of innovative Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). These designs are said to offer reduced unit cost and reduced risk due to certainty of delivery, which could lead to a lower cost of capital for a utility customer. By offering a product with more cost certainty the SMR could restore investor confidence in nuclear power. The life cycle cost estimates associated with the different SMR designs are uncertain at the early stage of development. However, designers need to understand, with some confidence, the impact of technical decisions at the early development phase on the life cycle cost.
This study presents an overview of cost uncertainty associated with the early design stage of the SMR. The types of cost estimating approaches available at the concept design phase are identified and categorized in terms of their expected accuracy ranges. The Overnight Cost of Construction (OCC) is an important driver of the life cycle cost of a power generation project. The expected accuracy ranges from each estimating method are used to illustrate the sensitivity of cost uncertainty to the level of design maturity. By understanding the sources and impact of cost uncertainty decision making during product development can be optimized to meet both technical and commercial requirements.