Comparing clinical attachment level and pocket depth for predicting periodontal disease progression in healthy sites of patients with chronic periodontitis using multi-state Markov models.
Comparing clinical attachment level and pocket depth for predicting periodontal disease progression in healthy sites of patients with chronic periodontitis using multi-state Markov models.
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DOI：
10.1111/jcpe.12278
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发表时间：
2014-09
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
de Blasio BF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mdala I;Olsen I;Haffajee AD;Socransky SS;Thoresen M;de Blasio BF
目的了解慢性牙周炎患者牙周健康部位的退变情况，并找出与疾病进展相关的因素。对163名美国和瑞典受试者的健康部位数据进行了分析，使用基于探诊出血(BOP)的两三状态(健康、牙龈炎、慢性牙周炎)马尔可夫模型，以及临床附着水平(CAL)+BOP或口袋深度(PD)+BOP。在2年内，10%(CAL+BOP)和3%(PD+UBOP)的健康部位发生了慢性牙周炎。平均而言，在过渡到这两种模式之前，健康的网站保持健康的时间为32个月。大多数(87%-97%)从健康状态过渡到牙周炎状态。预计牙周炎病变的持续时间为4-5个月，部位恢复的概率很高(96-98%)。根据基线时CAL/PD为4 mm和吸烟的部位数量衡量的疾病严重程度与6个月内从健康到慢性牙周炎的快速进展有关，仅在PD+BOP模型中牙龈发红也是如此。随着年龄的增长，疾病进展为牙周炎的比率下降。CAL+BOP组牙周炎和慢性牙周炎的转归概率高于PD+BOP组。吸烟和疾病严重程度是病情快速发展的重要预测因素。
To understand degeneration of healthy sites and identify factors associated with disease progression in patients with chronic periodontitis. Data on healthy sites from 163 American and Swedish subjects were analysed using two-three-state (health, gingivitis, chronic periodontitis) Markov models based on bleeding on probing (BOP), and either clinical attachment level (CAL) + BOP or pocket depth (PD) + BOP. In 2 years, 10% (CAL + BOP) and 3% (PD + BOP) of healthy sites developed chronic periodontitis. On average, healthy sites remained healthy for 32 months before transiting in both models. Most transitions (87–97%) from health were to the gingivitis state. The expected duration of the gingivitis lesion was 4–5 months and sites recovered with a high probability (96–98%). Disease severity as measured by number of sites with CAL/PD > 4 mm at baseline and smoking, were associated with fast progression from health to chronic periodontitis within 6 months as were gingival redness in the PD + BOP model only. With age, the rate of disease progression to gingivitis decreased. Transition probabilities for gingivitis and chronic periodontitis were higher with CAL + BOP than with PD + BOP. Smoking and disease severity were significant predictors for fast progression.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
KALBFLEISCH, JD;LAWLESS, JF
通讯作者：
LAWLESS, JF
DOI：
10.1016/s1532-3382(12)70002-7
发表时间：
2012-09-01
期刊：
The journal of evidence-based dental practice
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kye, Wayne;Davidson, Robert;Engebretson, Steven
通讯作者：
Engebretson, Steven
影响因子：
2
作者：
ANDERSEN, PK;HANSEN, LS;KEIDING, N
通讯作者：
KEIDING, N
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Faddy, MJ;Cullinan, MP;Seymour, GJ
通讯作者：
Seymour, GJ
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Borrell, LN;Papapanou, PN
通讯作者：
Papapanou, PN