The role of climate change in a developing threat: the case of bluetongue in Europe
The role of climate change in a developing threat: the case of bluetongue in Europe
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DOI：
10.20506/rst.36.2.2667
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发表时间：
2017-08-01
影响因子：
0.6
通讯作者：
Jones, A. E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baylis, M.;Caminade, C.;Jones, A. E.
期望气候变化会对人类，动物和植物的传染病产生相当大的影响，这是一个坚实的理论基础。媒介传播疾病最有可能受到影响。但是，很少有这种影响，因为疾病也受到许多其他驱动因素的影响，其中一些驱动因素在时间尺度上可能比气候变化更强。然而，有证据表明，我们的变暖气候已经影响了某些动物疾病，其中蓝肠疾病被认为是一个典型的例子。BlueTongue在1998年之后和2006年从2006年开始在北欧的南欧急剧出现。尽管这种出现的速度和规模却是一个挑战，这是一个挑战，主要是有证据表明，这是一个重要的气候变化模型的发展。气候驱动的模型表明，近几十年来，欧洲蓝色传播的风险增加，这是由于南欧部分地区对非洲热带叮咬Midge，Culicoides imicola的适合性，以及北欧北部土著库里西德斯载体的载体能力的提高。在预测的气候条件下，英格兰和威尔士在英格兰和威尔士的农场到农业传输模型进一步表明，在高排放情况下，未来爆发的规模可能远远超过迄今为止所经历的爆发。因此，气候变化在动物疾病发展威胁中的作用可能在经济和社会上是昂贵的，除非可以设定和遵循较低的排放目标。
There is a solid theoretical basis for expecting climate change to have a considerable effect on the infectious diseases of humans, animals and plants. Vector-borne diseases are the most likely to be affected. It is, however, rare to observe such impacts, as diseases are also influenced by many other drivers, some of which may have stronger effects over shorter time scales than climate change. Nevertheless, there is evidence that our warming climate has already influenced some animal diseases, of which bluetongue is considered a prime example.Bluetongue emerged dramatically in southern Europe after 1998 and in northern Europe from 2006. While the speed and scale of this emergence is a challenge to explain, there is evidence, principally from the development of climate-driven models, that recent climate change has played a significant role. Climate-driven models point to an increase in the risk of bluetongue transmission in Europe in recent decades, caused by an increased suitability of parts of southern Europe for the Afro-tropical biting midge, Culicoides imicola, as well as an increase in the vectorial capacity of indigenous Culicoides vectors in northern Europe. Farm-to-farm transmission models of bluetongue in England and Wales under predicted climatic conditions further suggest that, under high-emission scenarios, the scale of future outbreaks could far exceed those experienced to date. The role of climate change in the developing threat of animal disease is, therefore, likely to be economically and socially costly, unless lower emission targets can be set and followed.