Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan
Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan
复制标题
DOI：
10.1289/ehp4731
复制
发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Honda, Yasushi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Onozuka, Daisuke;Gasparrini, Antonio;Honda, Yasushi
背景：气候变化对传染病的负担具有显着影响。然而，没有研究根据气候变化情景估计未来与气候变化相关的腹泻发病率过高的预测。 目的：我们的目的是检查日本各地温度与传染性胃肠炎的关联，并预测 2090 年代与气候变化相伴的与温度相关的发病率。方法：2005-2015 年期间传染性胃肠炎病例的每周平均气温和发病率的时间序列是根据日本47个都道府县。采用两阶段时间序列分析来估计温度与传染性胃肠炎的关系。根据五种大气环流模型，对代表性浓度路径（RCP）的四种气候变化情景预测了当前和未来日均气温波动的时间序列。通过假设不存在适应和人口变化，对每种气候变化情景预测了高温和低温的超额发病率以及 1990-2099 年期间的净变化。 结果：2005-2015 年期间，报告了 11,529,833 例传染性胃肠炎病例。在较高排放情况下，温度引起的过度发病率出现净下降。与 2010-2019 年相比，2090-2099 年预测期的净变化为：RCP2.6 为 -0.8%（95% 经验置信区间 [eCI]：-2.3，0.5），RCP4.5 为 -3.8%（95% eCI：-6.1，-1.7），RCP4.5 为 -5.1%（95% eCI：-7.7，-2.8） RCP6.0 为 RCP6.0，RCP8.5 为 -9.1%（95% eCI：-15.5、-4.2），排放情景越高，估计减排量越大。在各县之间观察到温度与发病率关系的空间异质性（Cochran Q 检验，p < 0.001；I-2 = 62.0%）。结论：在较高排放情况下，日本可能会因传染性胃肠炎而导致与温度相关的过度发病率出现净下降。这些结果可能是因为日本大多数与温度相关的腹泻病例都是由冬季病毒感染引起的。有必要对气候变化导致的特定病原体引起的传染性胃肠炎进行进一步预测。
BACKGROUND: Climate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change-related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.METHODS: Weekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990-2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.RESULTS: In the period 2005-2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010-2019 was -0.8% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: -2.3, 0.5) for RCP2.6, -3.8% (95% eCI: -6.1, -1.7) for RCP4.5, -5.1% (95% eCI: -7.7, -2.8) for RCP6.0, and -9.1% (95% eCI: -15.5, -4.2) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, p < 0.001; I-2 =62.0%).CONCLUSIONS: Japan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted.