Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases
Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases
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DOI：
10.3390/jcm9020523
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发表时间：
2020-02-01
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Nishiura, Hiroshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jung, Sung-mok;Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R.;Nishiura, Hiroshi
中国境外确诊的2019年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）感染的输出病例为估计中国大陆的累积发病率和确诊病例死亡风险（cCFR）提供了机会。了解cCFR对于描述COVID-19的严重程度和了解疫情早期的大流行潜力至关重要。使用发病率的指数增长率，本研究统计估计的cCFR和基本的再生数-一个单一的原发病例在一个天真的人口产生的继发病例的平均数。我们根据2019年12月8日发病的单一指标病例（情景1）或根据截至2020年1月24日报告的20例输出病例的数据，使用沿着其他参数的增长率（情景2）对疫情增长进行建模。截至1月24日，中国的累积发病率估计分别为6924例（95%置信区间[CI]：4885，9211）和19，289例（95% CI：10，901，30，158）。方案1和方案2的cCFR最新估计值分别为5.3%（95% CI：3.5%，7.5%）和8.4%（95% CI：5.3%，12.3%）。方案1和方案2的基本繁殖数估计分别为2.1（95% CI：2.0，2.2）和3.2（95% CI：2.7，3.7）。基于这些结果，我们认为目前的COVID-19疫情有很大的可能导致大流行。所提出的方法提供了使用公开数据的早期风险评估的见解。
The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number-the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naive population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.