Is Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound Desirable?
Is Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound Desirable?
复制标题
政府支出处于零下限是否可取？
DOI：
10.1257/mac.20150229
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Christine Lagarde
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Christine Lagarde
我们建立了一个中等规模的DSGE模型，并对其进行了校准，以拟合美国大衰退期间的主要宏观经济变量。用它来评估在零下限下增加政府消费的福利效应，超出了数据中实际观察到的范围，我们得到了三个主要结果。首先，2008年后政府消费的增长（尽管按现值计算很小）接近于最佳水平。其次，同样的刺激措施本来可以改善福利。第三，我们的模型中出现了更大的福利效应，因为参数值要么意味着适度衰退（例如，高消费曲率）的大福利成本，要么意味着彻底的大衰退。（凝胶e12， e32, e43, e62, h50）
We build a medium-scale DSGE model and calibrate it to fit the main macroeconomic variables during the US Great Recession. Using it to evaluate the welfare effects of increasing government consumption at the zero lower bound beyond what was actually observed in the data, we reach three main results. First, the increase in government consumption after 2008, albeit small in present value terms, was close to optimal. Second, frontloading the same stimulus would have been welfare-improving. Third, larger welfare effects occur in our model for parameter values implying either large welfare costs of modest recessions (e.g., high consumption curvature), or outright large recessions. (JEL E12, E32, E43, E62, H50)