Deterministic Modelling in Gis-Based Landslide Hazard Assessment
Deterministic Modelling in Gis-Based Landslide Hazard Assessment
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DOI：
10.1007/978-94-015-8404-3_4
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Terlien;C. J. Westen;T. Asch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Terlien;C. J. Westen;T. Asch
确定性模型基于质量、能量或动量守恒的物理定律。在确定性滑坡危险性区划的情况下，分布式水文和边坡稳定性程序被用来计算地下水位，孔隙压力和安全系数的空间分布。本文主要研究基于栅格的二维地理信息系统（GIS）与确定性模型的集成，重点研究确定性水文模型。确定性滑坡灾害区划的三个例子，一个来自哥斯达黎加和两个来自哥伦比亚。在来自哥斯达黎加的例子中，使用一维外部水文模型来计算不同土壤类型和不同暴雨的土壤上层米的栖息水位高度。在哥伦比亚的第一个示例中，使用外部二维水文模型来计算20年内不同斜坡的最高地下水位，其中一系列火山灰覆盖在不透水的残留土壤上。在哥伦比亚的第二个例子中，在地理信息系统中使用了三维水文模型来模拟一个雨季期间地下水的波动。在实例1和2中，水文计算的结果用于稳定性计算，以获得给出安全系数的空间分布和失效概率的地图，并使用输入参数的分布函数。在示例3中，计算的地下水位被导出到外部边坡稳定性模型，以计算沿沿着剖面的安全系数。
Deterministic models are based on physical laws of conservation of mass, energy or momentum. In the case of deterministic landslide hazard zonation, distributed hydrological and slope stability programs are used to calculate the spatial distribution of groundwater levels, pore pressures and safety factors. This paper is concentrated on the integration of two-dimensional, raster-based, geographic information systems (GIS) and deterministic models, with emphasis on deterministic hydrological models. Three examples of deterministic landslide hazard zonation are presented; one from Costa Rica and two from Colombia. In the example from Costa Rica, a one- dimensional external hydrological model is used to calculate the height of perched water tables in the upper metre of the soil for different soil types and different rainstorms. In the first example from Colombia, an external two-dimensional hydrological model is used to calculate the maximum groundwater level, for a 20 year period, in different slopes with a sequence of volcanic ashes overlying impermeable residual soils. In the second example from Colombia, a three-dimensional hydrologic model is used in a GIS to simulate groundwater fluctuations during one rainy season. In examples 1 and 2 the results of the hydrologic calculations are used in stability calculations to obtain maps which give the spatial distribution of safety factors and the probability of failure, with the use of distribution functions of the input parameters. In example 3 the calculated groundwater levels are exported to an external slope stability model to calculate the safety factor along slope profiles.