Measuring Technological Innovation Over the Long Run
Measuring Technological Innovation Over the Long Run
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3279254
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发表时间：
2018-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Kelly;D. Papanikolaou;Amit Seru;Matt Taddy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Kelly;D. Papanikolaou;Amit Seru;Matt Taddy
我们使用专利文件的高维数据的文本分析来创建技术创新的新指标。我们根据特定专利与先前和后续工作的文本相似性来识别重要专利：这些专利与先前的工作不同，但与后续创新相关。我们对专利重要性的衡量是对未来引用的预测，并与市场价值的衡量密切相关。我们将突破性创新确定为最重要的专利-那些在我们测量的右尾-以构建总体，部门和公司层面的技术变革指数。我们的技术指数跨越两个世纪（1840-2010），涵盖私营和上市公司以及非营利组织和美国政府的创新。这些指数反映了技术浪潮在很长一段时间内的演变，是总体和部门一级生产力的有力预测指标。
We use textual analysis of high-dimensional data from patent documents to create new indicators of technological innovation. We identify significant patents based on textual similarity of a given patent to previous and subsequent work: these patents are distinct from previous work but are related to subsequent innovations. Our measure of patent significance is predictive of future citations and correlates strongly with measures of market value. We identify breakthrough innovations as the most significant patents – those in the right tail of our measure – to construct indices of technological change at the aggregate, sectoral, and firm level. Our technology indices span two centuries (1840-2010) and cover innovation by private and public firms, as well as non-profit organizations and the US government. These indices capture the evolution of technological waves over a long time span and are strong predictors of productivity at the aggregate and sectoral level.