Verification of tropical cyclone heat potential for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting in the Western North Pacific
Verification of tropical cyclone heat potential for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting in the Western North Pacific
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DOI：
10.1007/s10872-015-0298-0
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发表时间：
2015-05
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
A. Wada
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Wada
热带气旋热势 (TCHP) 是一种可测量的指标，通过从表面到 26 °C 等温线深度的海洋热量总和计算得出。气象研究所多元海洋变分估计（MOVE）系统计算的TCHP通过2002-2012年剖面浮标现场观测的TCHP进行了验证。经验证，有利于触发TC加深的热带气旋通过前的基于MOVE的TCHP阈值，由1985年至2012年最近6小时的最佳轨迹中心气压降确定。该阈值被指定为当TC加深记录数与TCHP箱中最佳轨迹记录总数的比值显着大于为每个域确定的参考比时，TCHP的最小范围。显着性水平为 0.05。阈值在 5–10°N 附近、120°E 以西和 140°E 以东相对较低（40–60 kJ cm−2），而在 15–20°N 附近相对较高（80–100 kJ cm−2）。在 5–10°N 附近，每个移动速度的比率显示两个峰值：移动速度为 3–5 和 7–9 m s−1。前一种情况以台风迈克（1990）为例，其 TCHP 相对较低（< 80 kJ cm−2），而后一种情况以台风海燕（2013）为例，在相对较高 TCHP（>120 kJ cm−2）下，其增强速度更快，达到较低的最低中心压力。
Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) is a measurable metric calculated by the summation of ocean heat content from the surface down to the depth of the 26 °C isotherm. TCHP calculated by the Meteorological Research Institute multivariate ocean variational estimation (MOVE) system is verified by using TCHP based on in situ observations by profiling floats during 2002–2012. After the verification, the threshold of MOVE-based TCHP before the passage of a tropical cyclone (TC) favorable for triggering TC deepening is determined by best-track central pressure drops for the nearest 6 hours from 1985 to 2012. The threshold is specified as the minimum range of TCHP when the ratio of the number of records for TC deepening to the total best-track number of records in a TCHP bin is significantly greater than the reference ratio determined for each domain at a significance level of 0.05. The threshold is relatively low (40–60 kJ cm−2) around 5–10°N, west of 120°E and east of 140°E, whereas it is relatively high (80–100 kJ cm−2) around 15–20°N. Around 5–10°N, the ratio for each moving speed shows two peaks: with moving speeds of 3–5 and 7–9 m s−1. The former case is exemplified by Typhoon Mike (1990) under relatively low TCHP (< 80 kJ cm−2), whereas the latter case is exemplified by Typhoon Haiyan (2013), which is more rapidly intensified and reaches a lower minimum central pressure under relatively high TCHP (>120 kJ cm−2).