The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views
The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-020-2281-1
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发表时间：
2020-05-13
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Lupu, Yonatan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Johnson, Neil F.;Velasquez, Nicolas;Lupu, Yonatan
深入了解 Facebook 上支持和反对疫苗接种群体之间的互动，可以制定政策和方法，试图阻止向反疫苗接种观点的转变，并说服尚未做出决定的个人采取支持疫苗接种的立场。对科学专业知识的不信任 (1-14) 是危险的。例如，反对未来针对 SARS-CoV-2（COVID-19 的病原体）疫苗接种可能会加剧疫情(2-4)，就像 2019 年麻疹的情况一样(5,6)。互联网上广泛传播自制疗法(7,8)和谎言，以及对专家建议的驳斥(9-11)。人们对这种不信任如何在系统层面演变缺乏了解(13,14)。在这里，我们提供了一张围绕疫苗的争论图，这些争论是从全球约 30 亿 Facebook 用户中出现的。其核心揭示了一个前所未有的错综复杂的多边格局，涉及近 1 亿人，他们被划分为跨城市、国家、大陆和语言的高度动态、相互关联的集群。尽管整体规模较小，但反对疫苗接种的集群设法与主要在线网络中尚未决定的集群高度纠缠在一起，而支持疫苗接种的集群则更为外围。我们的理论框架再现了最近反疫苗接种观点的爆炸式增长，并预测这些观点将在十年内占据主导地位。该框架提供的见解可以为新的政策和方法提供信息，以阻止这种向负面观点的转变。我们的结果挑战了关于健康争论问题上尚未做出决定的个体的传统思维，揭示了气候变化等其他争论问题(11)，并强调了网络集群动态在多物种生态学中的关键作用(15)。
Insights into the interactions between pro- and anti-vaccination clusters on Facebook can enable policies and approaches that attempt to interrupt the shift to anti-vaccination views and persuade undecided individuals to adopt a pro-vaccination stance.Distrust in scientific expertise(1-14) is dangerous. Opposition to vaccination with a future vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the causal agent of COVID-19, for example, could amplify outbreaks(2-4), as happened for measles in 2019(5,6). Homemade remedies(7,8) and falsehoods are being shared widely on the Internet, as well as dismissals of expert advice(9-11). There is a lack of understanding about how this distrust evolves at the system level(13,14). Here we provide a map of the contention surrounding vaccines that has emerged from the global pool of around three billion Facebook users. Its core reveals a multi-sided landscape of unprecedented intricacy that involves nearly 100 million individuals partitioned into highly dynamic, interconnected clusters across cities, countries, continents and languages. Although smaller in overall size, anti-vaccination clusters manage to become highly entangled with undecided clusters in the main online network, whereas pro-vaccination clusters are more peripheral. Our theoretical framework reproduces the recent explosive growth in anti-vaccination views, and predicts that these views will dominate in a decade. Insights provided by this framework can inform new policies and approaches to interrupt this shift to negative views. Our results challenge the conventional thinking about undecided individuals in issues of contention surrounding health, shed light on other issues of contention such as climate change(11), and highlight the key role of network cluster dynamics in multi-species ecologies(15).