Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-Experiment
Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-Experiment
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DOI：
10.1257/aer.104.7.2185
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发表时间：
2011-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Acconcia;G. Corsetti;S. Simonelli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Acconcia;G. Corsetti;S. Simonelli
我们根据意大利各省基础设施支出的差异以及识别投资变化的工具来估计乘数，这些变化与当地周期性条件无关。我们的工具源自一项法律，该法律根据黑手党渗透市议会的证据，强制中断公共工作。我们对横截面数据的 IV 估计使我们能够解决时间序列分析中的常见问题，例如由于内生性和反向因果关系而估计虚假高乘数的风险，或混淆财政和货币措施效果的风险。考虑到同期效应和滞后效应，并控制反黑手党措施对产出的直接影响，我们的结果表明影响乘数高达 1.4，动态效应乘数为 2。
We estimate the multiplier relying on differences in spending in infrastructure across Italian provinces and an instrument identifying investment changes that are large and exogenous to local cyclical conditions. We derive our instrument from the Law mandating the interruption of public work on evidence of mafia infiltration of city councils. Our IV estimates on cross sectional data allow us to address common problems in time series analysis, such as the risk of estimating spuriously high multipliers because of endogeneity and reverse causation, or the risk of confounding the effects of fiscal and monetary measures. Accounting for contemporaneous and lagged effects, and controlling for the direct impact of anti-mafia measures on output, our results suggest a multiplier as high as 1.4 on impact, and 2 including dynamic effects.