An operational solar wind prediction system transitioning fundamental science to operations
An operational solar wind prediction system transitioning fundamental science to operations
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一个可操作的太阳风预测系统将基础科学转变为操作
DOI：
10.1051/swsc/2018025
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Gong Jiancun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Jingjing;Ao Xianzhi;Wang Yuming;Wang Chuanbing;Cai Yanxia;Luo Bingxian;Liu Siqing;Shen Chenglong;Zhuang Bin;Xue Xianghui;Gong Jiancun
本文介绍了一个实用的太阳风预报系统。该系统是研究领域的科学家和中国空间环境预测中心预报员共同努力的成果。该系统主要由三个模块组成：(1)光球层磁场外推模块，结合Wang-Sheeley-Arge(WSA)经验方法获得背景太阳风速和源表面磁场强度；(2)修正的Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry(HAF)运动学模块，模拟太阳风结构在行星际空间的传播；(3)日冕物质抛射(CME)探测模块，利用日冕图像的冰淇淋锥模型推导CME参数。通过弥合基础科学和业务需求之间的差距，我们的系统终于能够预测地球附近的太阳风条件，特别是共同旋转相互作用区(CIR)和日冕物质抛射(CME)的到达时间。我们对2007年至2016年的历史太阳风数据进行的测试表明，高速增强(HSE)的命中率(HR)为0.60，虚警率(FAR)为0.30。同期最高速度的平均误差(ME)和平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为：S−1的73.9公里和S−1的101.2公里。同时，最大速度到达时间的ME和MAE分别为0.15天和1.27天。模拟了25个CME，到达时间的MAE为18.0小时。
We present in this paper an operational solar wind prediction system. The system is an outcome of the collaborative efforts between scientists in research communities and forecasters at Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) in China. This system is mainly composed of three modules: (1) a photospheric magnetic field extrapolation module, along with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical method, to obtain the background solar wind speed and the magnetic field strength on the source surface; (2) a modified Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) kinematic module for simulating the propagation of solar wind structures in the interplanetary space; and (3) a coronal mass ejection (CME) detection module, which derives CME parameters using the ice-cream cone model based on coronagraph images. By bridging the gap between fundamental science and operational requirements, our system is finally capable of predicting solar wind conditions near Earth, especially the arrival times of the co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) and CMEs. Our test against historical solar wind data from 2007 to 2016 shows that the hit rate (HR) of the high-speed enhancements (HSEs) is 0.60 and the false alarm rate (FAR) is 0.30. The mean error (ME) and the mean absolute error (MAE) of the maximum speed for the same period are −73.9 km s−1 and 101.2 km s−1 , respectively. Meanwhile, the ME and MAE of the arrival time of the maximum speed are 0.15 days and 1.27 days, respectively. There are 25 CMEs simulated and the MAE of the arrival time is 18.0 h.