Long-term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry-climate model employing realistic forcing
Long-term changes and variability in a transient simulation with a chemistry-climate model employing realistic forcing
复制标题
使用真实强迫的化学气候模型进行瞬态模拟的长期变化和变异性
DOI：
10.5194/acp-5-2121-2005
复制
发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
M. Giorgetta
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Dameris;V. Grewe;M. Ponater;R. Deckert;V. Eyring;F. Mager;S. Matthes;C. Schnadt;A. Stenke;B. Steil;C. Brühl;M. Giorgetta
本文用E39/C交互耦合化学气候模式对1960 ~ 1999年的40年进行了瞬态模拟。自然和人为起源的强迫是预先规定的，其中的特征是充分众所周知的，典型的时间尺度是缓慢的天气时间尺度相比，模拟的大气化学和气候演变下的“缓慢”变化的外部强迫。根据观测结果，规定了海表温度（SST）和冰盖。温室气体和氯氟烃浓度的增加以及氮氧化物排放量也被考虑在内。在计算化学物质的加热率和光解时考虑了11年的太阳活动周期。在此期间，三个主要的火山爆发（阿贡，1963年;埃尔Chichon，1982年;皮纳图博，1991年）被认为是。准两年振荡（QBO）是由平流层下部赤道纬向风向观测纬向风廓线的线性弛豫（也称为轻推）所强迫的。除了合理地再现平均参数和长期变率特征外，模拟和观测之间还有许多明显的情景相似特征：1986年和1988年南极臭氧洞比该十年的其他年份小。在南半球中纬度地区，臭氧异常与相应的观测结果相似，特别是1985、1989、1991/1992和1996年。在北方半球，80年代末至90年代前半期是动态平静的，特别是1988年至1993年没有发现平流层增暖。据观察，火山爆发强烈影响动力学和化学，虽然只有几年。显然，行星波的活动是由指定的SST强烈驱动和调制的QBO。现实的因果关系的初步证据强烈表明，详细的面向过程的研究将是一个值得的努力。
A transient simulation with the interactively cou- pled chemistry-climate model (CCM) E39/C has been car- ried out which covers the 40-year period between 1960 and 1999. Forcing of natural and anthropogenic origin is pre- scribed where the characteristics are sufficiently well known and the typical timescales are slow compared to synoptic timescale so that the simulated atmospheric chemistry and climate evolve under a "slowly" varying external forcing. Based on observations, sea surface temperature (SST) and ice cover are prescribed. The increase of greenhouse gas and chlorofluorocarbon concentrations, as well as nitrogen oxide emissions are taken into account. The 11-year solar cycle is considered in the calculation of heating rates and photoly- sis of chemical species. The three major volcanic eruptions during that time (Agung, 1963; El Chichon, 1982; Pinatubo, 1991) are considered. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is forced by linear relaxation, also known as nudging, of the equatorial zonal wind in the lower stratosphere towards ob- served zonal wind profiles. Beyond a reasonable reproduc- tion of mean parameters and long-term variability character- istics there are many apparent features of episodic similari- ties between simulation and observation: In the years 1986 and 1988 the Antarctic ozone holes are smaller than in the other years of that decade. In mid-latitudes of the South- ern Hemisphere ozone anomalies resemble the correspond- ing observations, especially in 1985, 1989, 1991/1992, and 1996. In the Northern Hemisphere, the episode between the late 1980s and the first half of the 1990s is dynami- cally quiet, in particular, no stratospheric warming is found between 1988 and 1993. As observed, volcanic eruptions strongly influence dynamics and chemistry, though only for few years. Obviously, planetary wave activity is strongly driven by the prescribed SST and modulated by the QBO. Preliminary evidence of realistic cause and effect relation- ships strongly suggests that detailed process-oriented studies will be a worthwhile endeavour.