Assessing spatiotemporal variation of heat waves during 1961-2016 across mainland China
Assessing spatiotemporal variation of heat waves during 1961-2016 across mainland China
复制标题
评估1961-2016年中国大陆热浪时空变化
DOI：
10.1002/joc.6381
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Bao Yulong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Guo Enliang;Wang Yongfang;Bao Yulong
在全球变暖的背景下，热浪是当前科学研究的主题之一，因为它们可以对环境和社会产生灾难性的影响。因此，对HWS的变化进行详细研究以评估时空尺度上的可变性变得越来越有必要。这项研究的主要目的是检测和分析基于Köppen气候分类的中国地区水汽和潜在气候驱动因素的变化。这项研究使用了1961至2016年的每日观测数据(最高和最低温度)，以定义基于超热系数(EHFs)的HWS。采用线性趋势分析、贝叶斯变点分析、交叉小波变换和皮尔逊相关分析方法，分别识别了次区域流行性出血热的趋势、变异性和共振周期，以及流行性出血热与大尺度气候格局之间可能存在的联系。结果表明，除极地冻土带(ET)的HWM外，其余6个气候带的EHFs总体呈显着增加趋势。大陆中国地区流行性出血热的时空特征差异较大。年平均流行性出血热的空间格局与其变化趋势相似。在干旱(BB)、半干旱(BS)和寒冷半湿润(DW)地区，个体HW的数量、贡献HWS的天数和最长HW的长度的空间格局是西部大于东部；温带湿润(CF)相反，在温带半湿润(CW)和ET上南部大于北部。此外，所有热波的平均温度(HWM)和最热HW的日最大值出现在北部DW、CF和BS的部分地区。转折点首先出现在大陆的北部，然后是南部，横跨大陆的中国，但HWM除外。多变量ENSO指数和北极涛动指数与EHFs呈显著正相关，而太平洋年代际涛动和北大西洋涛动与中国地区呈显著负相关。EHFs序列在全国范围内表现出明显的2-4年周期振荡。加强蒙古族反气旋环流
Heat waves (HWs) are one of the current topics of scientific research in the context of global warming, as they can have a disastrous impact on both environment and society. Therefore, detailed studies of variations of HWs that assess variability on spatiotemporal scales are becoming increasingly necessary. The main objective of this study is to detect and analyse variation in HWs and potential climate drivers across China based on Köppen climate classifications. Daily observation data (maximum and minimum temperature) from 1961 to 2016 were used in the study to define HWs based on excess heat factors (EHFs). Linear trend analysis, Bayesian change-point analysis, cross-wavelet transform method, and Pearson correlation analysis method were adopted to identify the trends, variability and resonance periodicity of EHFs in subregional, and the possible links between EHFs and large-scale climate patterns, respectively. Results show that there was an overall significantly increasing trend of EHFs over six climatic zones except for HWM in the Polar tundra (ET). The spatiotemporal characteristics of EHFs in mainland China vary considerably. The spatial patterns of the mean annual EHFs are similar to their change trend. The spatial pattern of the number of individual HWs, the number of days that contribute to HWs, and the length of the longest HW in arid (BB), semi-arid (BS) and cold semi-humid (DW) areas of study is the west exceeding the east; temperate humid (CF) is contrary to that, with the south exceeding the north in temperate semi-humid (CW) and ET. In addition, the mean temperature of all heatwaves (HWM) and the peak daily value in the hottest HW appeared in parts of northern DW, CF and BS. Change point first occurs in the northern and then in the southern region across mainland China, excepting HWM. A dominant positive correlation was found for Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI) with EHFs, while a dominant negative correlation was detected for Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) across China. A common significant 2–4 year periodical oscillation was detected in the EHFs series at the nationwide scale. Strengthening anti-cyclone circulation in the Mongolian