Japanese fuel mix strategy after disaster of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant: Lessons from international comparison among industrial nations measured by DEA environmental assessment in time horizon
Japanese fuel mix strategy after disaster of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant: Lessons from international comparison among industrial nations measured by DEA environmental assessment in time horizon
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2015.09.001
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发表时间：
2015-12
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
T. Sueyoshi;M. Goto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Sueyoshi;M. Goto
2015年6月1日，日本政府宣布，到2030年，燃料组合将包括核能发电，占总发电量的20%至22%，可再生能源发电占总发电量的22%至24%。理解政府未来能源计划的一个困难是，它没有包含任何科学证据，说明为什么日本需要将核能发电量保持在20%至22%之间，将可再生能源发电量保持在22%至24%之间。为了探讨未来能源计画，本研究使用资料包络分析法（DEA）作为研究方法。所提出的DEA方法结合了“平移不变性”的属性。该属性指示即使通过添加或减去特定的真实的数而使输入和/或输出向相同方向移动，效率度量也不应受到影响。该属性使得我们可以评估组织的绩效，其生产要素（即，输入、期望的和不期望的输出）在数据集中包含许多零和负值。在许多DEA绩效评价中，生产要素的零值和负值的出现是普遍存在的。本研究首先利用期望性质进行时间范围内的DEA环境评估。建议的DEA环境评估确定了日本未来燃料组合的合理范围是：（a）可燃燃料发电在34.5%和56.1%之间，（B）水力发电在22.4%和40.5%之间，（c）核能发电在10.4%和13.7%之间，（d）抽水水力发电占3.9%至6.9%之间，以及（e）可再生能源发电占3.7%至8.4%之间，所有这些发电量都是以这些发电量来衡量的。通过与33个工业化国家的能源结构进行比较，我们可以清楚地看出，日本政府提出的未来燃料结构与我们预测的燃料结构不一致。比较表明，日本未来能源计划将过于雄心勃勃，无法实现未来目标。不难想象，能源计划在未来将面临相当大的困难。希望电力行业能够获得包括生态技术创新在内的巨大技术进步，然后日本将能够像政府期望的那样改变燃料组合的未来方向。
On June 1, 2015, the Japanese government has announced that the fuel mix will consist of nuclear generation with a range between 20% and 22% and renewable generation with a range between 22% and 24% of the total electricity generation by 2030. A difficulty in understanding the governmental future energy plan is that it does not contain any scientific evidence concerning why Japan needs to maintain the amount of nuclear generation and that of renewable at the level between 20% and 22% and between 22% and 24%, respectively. To investigate the future energy plan, this study uses Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a methodology. The proposed DEA approach incorporates the property of “translation invariance”. The property indicates that an efficiency measure should not be influenced even if inputs and/or outputs are shifted toward a same direction by adding or subtracting a specific real number. The property makes it possible that we can evaluate the performance of organizations, whose production factors (i.e., inputs, desirable and undesirable outputs) contain many zeros and negative values in a data set. Such an occurrence of zero and negative in production factors is widely observed in many DEA performance evaluations. This study first uses the desirable property for DEA environmental assessment in a time horizon. The proposed DEA environmental assessment identifies that the reasonable ranges for Japanese future fuel mix are (a) combustible fuel generation within the range between 34.5% and 56.1%, (b) hydro generation within the range between 22.4% and 40.5%, (c) nuclear generation within the range between 10.4% and 13.7%, (d) pumped hydro generation within the range between 3.9% and 6.9% and (e) renewable generation within the range between 3.7% and 8.4%, all of which are measured by these generation capacities. It is clearly identified that the future fuel mix proposed by the Japanese government is inconsistent with the estimated one, which we determine by relatively comparing it with the energy structures of 33 industrial nations. The comparison indicates that the Japanese future energy plan will be too ambitious to implement the future goal. It is easily envisioned that the energy plan will have a considerable difficulty in future. It is hoped that the electric power industry can access drastic technological advancements, including eco-technology innovation, and then Japan will be able to change the future direction on fuel mix as the government expects.