Developing a framework for risk-based surveillance of tuberculosis in cattle: a case study of its application in Scotland
Developing a framework for risk-based surveillance of tuberculosis in cattle: a case study of its application in Scotland
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DOI：
10.1017/s0950268812000635
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Kao, R. R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bessell, P. R.;Orton, R.;Kao, R. R.
由于其牛结核病（bTB）的患病率相对于英国其他地区低得多，苏格兰在2009年被指定为正式的（牛）无结核病地区。本文研究了通过开发基于风险的替代方案来减少监测的可能性，以取代目前对合格畜群进行的4年检测。使用无感染模型制定策略，专门检测有感染风险但可能无法通过屠宰场肉类检查识别的牛群。通过检测每年屠宰量低于其总存栏量25%且定期从英格兰和威尔士或爱尔兰的高发地区进口动物的所有牛群，模拟当前检测的性能。该系统通过减少25%的畜群和动物测试以及减少25%的假阳性来降低成本。
Due to its substantially lower prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) relative to other areas of Great Britain, Scotland was designated as an officially (bovine) TB-free region in 2009. This paper investigates resultant possibilities for reducing surveillance by developing risk-based alternatives to current 4-year testing of eligible herds. A model of freedom of infection was used to develop strategies that specifically tested herds that are at risk of infection but would probably not be identified by slaughterhouse meat inspection. The performance of current testing is mimicked by testing all herds that slaughter fewer than 25 % of their total stock per year and regularly import animals from high-incidence areas of England and Wales or from Ireland. This system offers a cost reduction by requiring 25 % fewer herd and animal tests and 25 % fewer false positives.