Smoking and lung cancer mortality in Japanese men: estimates for dose and duration of cigarette smoking based on the Japan vital statistics data.
Smoking and lung cancer mortality in Japanese men: estimates for dose and duration of cigarette smoking based on the Japan vital statistics data.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1349-7006.1989.tb01705.x
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发表时间：
1989-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Akiba S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mizuno S;Akiba S
为了了解人类致癌作用并定量预测一般日本男性人群的肺癌死亡率，我们使用日本人口统计数据评估了一个统计模型，该模型假设吸烟者的肺癌死亡率与有效吸烟时间的 4.5 次方成正比，非吸烟者的肺癌死亡率与年龄的 4 次方成正比。对于 1965 年年龄在 40-79 岁之间的 30-69 岁男性出生队列，按 1955 年至 1985 年每五年一次的日历时间间隔进行研究，结果发现，(i) 对于非吸烟者，估计的肺癌死亡率与美国或英国报告的死亡率相当，分配了 20% 至 25% 的非吸烟者比例，(ii) 对于吸烟者，估计的吸烟时间根据各种流行病学调查，从开始吸烟的年龄开始的时间比预期的要短，并且（iii）估计吸烟者每天吸烟的平均数量与流行病学研究获得的结果相似，这些研究是通过纳入 Doll 和 Peto 剂量反应关系的一部分来估计的。还讨论了通过统计模型a ×（每天吸支烟数+β）×（年龄—（开始吸烟的年龄）—γ）4,s 评估日本男性吸烟者肺癌死亡风险的可能性。
For the purpose of understanding human carcinogenesis and making a quantitative prediction of lung cancer mortality in a general population of Japanese males, we evaluated a statistical model which assumes lung cancer mortality to be proportional to the 4.5th power of the effective duration of cigarette smoking among smokers and to the 4th power of age among nonsmokers, using Japan Vital Statistics data. For the male birth cohorts aged 30–69 in 1965 in the age range of 40–79, studied by quinquennial calendar time intervals from 1955 to 1985, it was found that, (i) for nonsmokers, the estimated lung cancer mortality rate was comparable to the rates reported in the US or Britain, assigning 20 to 25% proportions of nonsmokers, (ii) for smokers, the estimated duration of smoking was shorter than would be expected from the age when smoking was started according to various epidemiological surveys, and (iii) the estimated average numbers of cigarettes smoked per day by smokers were similar to those obtained by epidemiological studies, when these were estimated by incorporating a part of Doll and Peto's dose‐response relationship. Also discussed is the possibility of assessing lung cancer mortality risk for Japanese male smokers by means of the statistical model, a × (cigarettes smoked per day +β) × (age— (age started smoking) —γ)4,s.