Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq
Success Matters: Casualty Sensitivity and the War in Iraq
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成功很重要：伤亡敏感性和伊拉克战争
DOI：
10.1162/isec.2005.30.3.7
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Jason Reifler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Christopher Gelpi;P. Feaver;Jason Reifler
自越南战争以来，美国决策者一直担心，只有当战争的人力成本（以战斗伤亡衡量）最小时，美国公众才会支持军事行动。虽然公众对伤亡的厌恶是正确的，但公众对美军伤亡的敏感程度关键取决于这些损失发生的背景。公众对战争的人道代价的容忍度主要由两个关键因素的交集决定：对战争的正确性或错误性的信念，以及对战争可能成功的信念。每一种信念的影响都取决于另一种信念。然而，最终，对成功可能性的信念在决定公众是否愿意容忍美军在战斗中死亡方面最为重要。对公开民意调查的重新分析和对作者设计的一系列民意调查的详细分析都支持这一结论，这些民意调查旨在了解公众对伤亡的态度。
Since the Vietnam War, U.S. policymakers have worried that the American public will support military operations only if the human costs of the war, as measured in combat casualties, are minimal. Although the public is rightly averse to suffering casualties, the level of popular sensitivity to U.S. military casualties depends critically on the context in which those losses occur. The public's tolerance for the human costs of war is primarily shaped by the intersection of two crucial factors: beliefs about the rightness or wrongness of the war, and beliefs about the war's likely success. The impact of each belief depends upon the other. Ultimately, however, beliefs about the likelihood of success matter most in determining the public's willingness to tolerate U.S. military deaths in combat. A reanalysis of publicly available polls and a detailed analysis of a series of polls designed by the authors to tap into public attitudes on casualties support this conclusion.