Modeling Short- and Long-Term Characteristics of Follicle Stimulating Hormone as Predictors of Severe Hot Flashes in Penn Ovarian Aging Study.
Modeling Short- and Long-Term Characteristics of Follicle Stimulating Hormone as Predictors of Severe Hot Flashes in Penn Ovarian Aging Study.
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DOI：
10.1111/rssc.12102
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发表时间：
2015-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Elliott MR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jiang B;Wang N;Sammel MD;Elliott MR
宾夕法尼亚大学卵巢老化研究跟踪了436名年龄在35-47岁的女性的人口样本，以确定生殖激素水平与更年期症状之间的关系。我们开发了一种联合建模方法，该方法使用卵泡刺激素(FSH)的个人水平纵向测量来预测严重潮热的风险，其方式是区分平均轨迹的长期趋势、由平均轨迹的导数捕获的累积变化以及短期残差变异性。我们的方法允许纵向轨迹对健康风险的潜在影响随着时间的推移而变化和积累。我们进一步利用所提出的方法来缩小增加健康风险的关键时间窗口。我们发现，FSH的高残留变异是潮热风险的一个很强的预测因子，52.5-55岁年龄段FSH平均轨迹的高累积变化也提供了高于短期FSH残留变异本身的风险增加的证据。
The Penn Ovarian Aging Study tracked a population-based sample of 436 women aged 35-47 years to determine associations between reproductive hormone levels and menopausal symptoms. We develop a joint modeling method that uses the individual-level longitudinal measurements of follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) to predict the risk of severe hot flashes in a manner that distinguishes long-term trends of the mean trajectory, cumulative changes captured by the derivative of mean trajectory, and short-term residual variability. Our method allows the potential effects of longitudinal trajectories on the health risks to vary and accumulate over time. We further utilize the proposed methods to narrow the critical time windows of increased health risks. We find that high residual variation of FSH is a strong predictor of hot flash risk, and that the high cumulative changes of the FSH mean trajectories in the 52.5-55 year age range also provides evidence of increased risk above and beyond that of short-term FSH residual variation by itself.