Forecasting extreme seasonal tourism demand: the case of Rishiri Island in Japan
Forecasting extreme seasonal tourism demand: the case of Rishiri Island in Japan
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预测极端季节性旅游需求：以日本利尻岛为例
DOI：
10.1007/s41685-017-0048-y
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Niematallah Elamin and Mototsugu Fukushige
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
NAKAZAWA;Nobuhiko;Niematallah Elamin and Mototsugu Fukushige
极端季节性需求的存在，淡季月度需求接近于零，意味着旅游经营者被迫在旺季提高效率。这也意味着构建旺季需求预测模型非常重要。在预测冷水岛等地点的旅游需求时，我们面临着如此极端的季节性。日本的利尻岛就是一个典型的例子。我们构建了几个预测模型并评估它们的预测性能。具有全季节数据但没有趋势项的 SARIMA 模型的预测在样本后评估中表现最佳。
The existence of extreme seasonal demand, such that off-season monthly demand is close to zero, means that tourism operators are forced to be more efficient in the high season. It also means that it is important to construct a forecast model for the high-season demand. In forecasting tourism demand for a location such as a cold-water island, we face such extreme seasonality. Rishiri Island in Japan is a typical example. We construct several forecasting models and evaluate their forecasting performance. Forecasts from the SARIMA model with full-season data and without a trend term perform best in postsample evaluation.