Recent intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle in equatorial Africa revealed by farmer perceptions, satellite-based estimates, and ground-based station measurements
Recent intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle in equatorial Africa revealed by farmer perceptions, satellite-based estimates, and ground-based station measurements
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-019-02370-4
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发表时间：
2019-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
J. Salerno;J. Diem;B. Konecky;J. Hartter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Salerno;J. Diem;B. Konecky;J. Hartter
撒哈拉以南非洲的小农和牲畜饲养者处于气候多变性和变化的前沿。然而，在许多区域，由于缺乏天气和气候数据，无法对最近的气候趋势及其原因进行严格评估，从而限制了预报和其他气候适应服务的有效性。在灌溉系统中，农民对降雨量和天气模式变化的看法是年度作物决策的重要前兆。在这里，我们建议，结合这种农民的看法，在季节性降雨量的趋势，基于卫星的降雨量估计和气候站的数据，可以减少区域气候趋势的不确定性。乌干达西部是赤道非洲东部和中部之间的一个农村和气候复杂的过渡区，来自980个小农户的数据表明，近几十年来季节性双峰降雨量发生了明显变化，特别是雨季更潮湿，旱季更干燥。从1983年开始的三个基于卫星的降雨产品的数据在很大程度上证实了过去10-20年的受访者的看法，特别是在最南端的网站附近的伊丽莎白女王国家公园。此外，结合所有三个信息来源表明，年降雨量呈增加趋势，最突出的是在北部附近的默奇森福尔斯国家公园在过去的二十年;这与最近的研究断言，在该地区的干燥趋势的存在。我们的研究在评估和交叉验证这些多个数据源方面是独一无二的，以确定影响人们在一个知之甚少的地区的气候变化，同时提供对区域规模气候控制的见解。
Smallholder farmers and livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa are on the frontlines of climate variability and change. Yet, in many regions, a paucity of weather and climate data has prevented rigorous assessment of recent climate trends and their causes, thereby limiting the effectiveness of forecasts and other services for climate adaptation. In rainfed systems, farmer perceptions of changing rainfall and weather patterns are important precursors for annual cropping decisions. Here, we propose that combining such farmer perceptions of trends in seasonal rainfall with satellite-based rainfall estimates and climate station data can reduce uncertainties regarding regional climatic trends. In western Uganda, a rural and climatically complex transition zone between eastern and central equatorial Africa, data from 980 smallholder households suggest distinct changes in seasonal bimodal rainfall over recent decades, specifically wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons. Data from three satellite-based rainfall products beginning in 1983 largely corroborate respondent perceptions over the last 10–20 years, particularly in the southernmost sites near Queen Elizabeth National Park. In addition, combining all three information sources suggests an increasing trend in annual rainfall, most prominently in the north near Murchison Falls National Park over the past two decades; this runs counter to recent research asserting the presence of a drying trend in the region. Our study is unique in evaluating and cross-validating these multiple data sources to identify climatic change affecting people in a poorly understood region, while providing insights into regional-scale climate controls.