Estimating UK perennial energy crop supply using farm-scale models with spatially disaggregated data
Estimating UK perennial energy crop supply using farm-scale models with spatially disaggregated data
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DOI：
10.1111/gcbb.12121
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Cisowska, Iwona
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alexander, Peter;Moran, Dominic;Cisowska, Iwona
为了实现英国政府扩大多年生能源作物生长的目标，要求农民优先选择这些作物，而不是传统的轮作。现有的估计总潜在资源的研究要么只是简单地考虑了农民的决策和机会成本，例如使用年土地租金估计数;要么没有考虑空间变异性，例如使用代表性的农场类型。本文试图应用农场规模的建模方法与空间特定的数据，以提高对潜在的多年生能源作物供应的理解。模型的主要输入是多年生能源作物的产量图，芒草和杨柳作为短轮伐期矮林（SRC），以及常规作物的区域产量。这些用于配置特定于位置的农场规模模型，该模型优化了利润最大化和风险规避。由于环境或社会因素，不适合或无法种植能源作物的地区受到选择的限制。其结果是地图的经济供应，假设一个同质的农场门口的价格，使供应成本曲线为英国市场的推导。结果表明，供应的区域差异很大，每种能源作物的模式不同。使用气候变化情景下的产量估计表明，芒草供应可能会增加未来的气候，而SRC杨柳建议相反的效果。结果表明，SRC杨柳只可能能够提供预期的多年生能源作物目标的一小部分，而不会增加市场价格。芒草似乎有更大的供应范围，随着时间的推移，气候变化的影响可能会扩大其主导地位。最后，讨论了与市场需求方的关系，并提出了研究影响市场整体发展的因素的工作。
To achieve the UK Government's aim of expansion in the growth of perennial energy crops requires farmers to select these crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision-making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm-scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial energy crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial energy crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short-rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional crops. These are used to configure location specific farm-scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for energy crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm-gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each energy crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial energy crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.