Current state of the global operational aerosol multi‐model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP)
Current state of the global operational aerosol multi‐model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP)
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DOI：
10.1002/qj.3497
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发表时间：
2019-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Xian;J. Reid;E. Hyer;C. Sampson;J. Rubin;M. Ades;N. Asencio;S. Basart;A. Benedetti;P. B
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文献类型：
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作者：
P. Xian;J. Reid;E. Hyer;C. Sampson;J. Rubin;M. Ades;N. Asencio;S. Basart;A. Benedetti;P. B
自第一次国际气溶胶预报合作(ICAP)多模式集合(MME)研究以来，ICAP全球业务气溶胶模式的数量已从5个增加到9个。报告提供了ICAP当前状况的最新情况，以及对ICAP-MME在2012-2017年间业绩的评价，重点是2016年6月至2017年5月。用地面气溶胶机器人网络(AERONET)气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)和数据同化质量中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)反演产品进行评估，ICAP-MME AOD共识在所有模型中仍然是总体得分最高和最一致的表现，表现在均方根误差(RMSE)、总、精细和粗模AOD以及尘埃AOD的偏差和相关性方面；这类似于ICAP-MME的第一项研究。此外，多年来，与单个模型中更多的可变性相比，ICAP-MME的性能相对稳定和可靠。对ICAP-MME的AOD预报误差的可预测性进行了检验。领先的预测因子被发现是一致的平均值和价差。对不同长度的气溶胶光学厚度预报建立了绝对预报误差回归模型，为潜在的应用提供了依据。ICAP-MME在2012-2017年21个区域代表性站点的模式AOD RMSE方面的表现表明，精细模式AOD的模式改进的总体趋势，特别是在亚洲。在这段时间内，总体上没有发现粗模AOD的显著改善。
Since the first International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) multi‐model ensemble (MME) study, the number of ICAP global operational aerosol models has increased from five to nine. An update of the current ICAP status is provided, along with an evaluation of the performance of ICAP‐MME over 2012–2017, with a focus on June 2016–May 2017. Evaluated with ground‐based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and data assimilation quality MODerate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieval products, the ICAP‐MME AOD consensus remains the overall top‐scoring and most consistent performer among all models in terms of root‐mean‐square error (RMSE), bias and correlation for total, fine‐ and coarse‐mode AODs as well as dust AOD; this is similar to the first ICAP‐MME study. Further, over the years, the performance of ICAP‐MME is relatively stable and reliable compared to more variability in the individual models. The extent to which the AOD forecast error of ICAP‐MME can be predicted is also examined. Leading predictors are found to be the consensus mean and spread. Regression models of absolute forecast errors were built for AOD forecasts of different lengths for potential applications. ICAP‐MME performance in terms of modal AOD RMSEs of the 21 regionally representative sites over 2012–2017 suggests a general tendency for model improvements in fine‐mode AOD, especially over Asia. No significant improvement in coarse‐mode AOD is found overall for this time period.