Seismic Hazard Assessment: Issues and Alternatives
Seismic Hazard Assessment: Issues and Alternatives
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00024-010-0148-3
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Zhenming Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhenming Wang
在工程设计和其他政策考虑中，地震危险性和风险是两个非常重要的概念。虽然地震危险和风险经常被交替使用，但它们从根本上是不同的。此外，地震风险在工程设计和其他政策考虑中更为重要。地震危险性评估是地球科学家对地震危险性及其在时间和空间上的不确定性进行量化的努力，并为地震危险性评估和其他应用提供地震危险性估计。虽然地震危险性评估是一个更科学的问题，但由于其对社会的重大影响，它值得特别关注。地震危险性评估通常采用概率地震危险性分析(PSHA)和确定性地震危险性分析(DSHA)两种方法。尽管PSHA被宣布为地震危险性评估的最佳方法，但它在科学上是有缺陷的(即，PSHA所基于的物理和数学是无效的)。使用PSHA可能会导致不安全或过于保守的工程设计或公共政策，每一种都会给社会带来可怕的后果。另一方面，尽管被贴上了不可靠的标签，但DSHA仍是一种可行的地震危险性评估方法。该方法最大的缺点是忽略了地震的时间特性(即地震发生频率和相关不确定性)。另一种方法是地震危险性分析(SHA)，它直接利用地震科学和统计学，并提供地震危险性估计，可随时用于地震风险评估和其他应用。
Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been proclaimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications.