Effects of carbon dioxide and climate change on ocean acidification and carbonate mineral saturation
Effects of carbon dioxide and climate change on ocean acidification and carbonate mineral saturation
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DOI：
10.1029/2006gl028605
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发表时间：
2007-03-09
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Jain, Atul K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cao, Long;Caldeira, Ken;Jain, Atul K.
[1]我们使用一个中等复杂程度的地球系统模型来显示考虑气候变化如何影响海洋pH值和碳酸钙饱和状态的预测变化。我们的研究结果表明，考虑气候变化会对恒定气候下的海洋化学预测产生二阶修正；这些变化主要是由于海面温度的变化和气候引起的溶解无机碳浓度的变化。在基于WRE1000 CO2稳定浓度路径和恒定气候的CO2排放情景下，我们预测到2500年，海洋表面pH值将相对于工业化前的8.17单位降低0.47个单位，文石饱和度将从工业化前的3.34降低到1.39。在CO2排放量相同的情况下，考虑气候敏感性为2.5℃的气候变化，预估全球平均地表pH值降低约0.48，文石饱和状态降低至1.50。当气候敏感性为4.5℃时，这些值分别为0.51和1.62。因此，我们的研究表明，由二氧化碳排放到大气中引起的海洋酸化的未来变化在很大程度上与气候变化的程度无关。
[1] We use an earth system model of intermediate complexity to show how consideration of climate change affects predicted changes in ocean pH and calcium carbonate saturation state. Our results indicate that consideration of climate change produces second-order modifications to ocean chemistry predictions made with constant climate; these modifications occur primarily as a result of changes in sea surface temperature, and climate-induced changes in dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations. Under a CO2 emission scenario derived from the WRE1000 CO2 stabilization concentration pathway and a constant climate, we predict a 0.47 unit reduction in surface ocean pH relative to a pre-industrial value of 8.17, and a reduction in the degree of saturation with respect to aragonite from a pre-industrial value of 3.34 to 1.39 by year 2500. With the same CO2 emissions but the consideration of climate change under a climate sensitivity of 2.5 degrees C the reduction in projected global mean surface pH is about 0.48 and the saturation state of aragonite decreases to 1.50. With a climate sensitivity of 4.5 degrees C, these values are 0.51 and 1.62, respectively. Our study therefore suggests that future changes in ocean acidification caused by emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere are largely independent of the amounts of climate change.