A Conceptual Framework to Classify and Manage Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: An Application to Energy Policy
A Conceptual Framework to Classify and Manage Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: An Application to Energy Policy
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分类和管理风险、不确定性和模糊性的概念框架：在能源政策中的应用
DOI：
10.3390/en13061422
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
F. Romerio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ludovic Gaudard;F. Romerio
面对全球性问题，我们需要评估和管理各种风险和不确定性。由于世界日益复杂，需要在文献中建立一个充分和创新的概念框架。本文通过一种与决策者处理不同性质的威胁、有限的异构信息和受怀疑污染的专家评估特别相关的方法，为这一努力做出了贡献。我们的方法基于两个支柱：1)基于事件发生的概率、其影响和专家的怀疑程度的“敏锐度量表”；2)一个以风险、不确定性、赌博和蝴蝶模糊概念为重点的分类法。因此，我们在第二步中提出这种方法对管理的主要影响。全球政策趋势（例如，可持续转型）使能源部门决策者处于风险和不确定性管理的最前沿。因此，我们对瑞士自20世纪80年代以来的能源政策进行了案例研究，包括其开始，福岛事故引发的转变，以及政府的2050年能源战略。我们的调查表明，拟议的概念框架允许对影响政府政策和利益相关者战略的主要驱动因素进行原始分析。
Global issues are such that we should assess and manage a variety of risks and uncertainties. Due to increasing world complexity, the development of an adequate and innovative conceptual framework, anchored in the literature, is required. This article contributes to this effort with an approach particularly relevant to decision-makers dealing with threats of different natures, limited heterogeneous information, and experts’ assessments tainted by doubts. Our approach is based on two pillars: 1) An “acuity scale”, based on the probability of the occurrence of an event, its impact and the experts’ degree of doubt; 2) A taxonomy focused on the concepts of risk, uncertainty, gamble and butterfly ambiguity. Accordingly, we present in a second step the major management implications of such approach. Global policy trends (e.g., sustainability transition) put energy sector decision-makers at the forefront of risk and uncertainty management. Consequently, we carry out a case study focused on Swiss energy policy since the 1980s, including its inception, the turnaround provoked by the Fukushima accident, and the government’s 2050 energy strategy. Our investigation shows that the proposed conceptual framework allows for the development of an original analysis of the main drivers that influence governmental policies and stakeholder strategies.