Ammonia to power: Forecasting the levelized cost of electricity from green ammonia in large-scale power plants
Ammonia to power: Forecasting the levelized cost of electricity from green ammonia in large-scale power plants
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116009
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发表时间：
2021-01-15
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Banares-Alcantara, Rene
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cesaro, Zac;Ives, Matthew;Banares-Alcantara, Rene
由空气、水和可再生能源合成的绿色氨是一种无碳储能载体，具有许多潜在的能源应用，包括用于电力部门的可调度绿色电力。由于储存和运输氨的成本低，绿色氨可以在所有地区用作能源，而不需要碳捕获和储存（CCS）或地下氢储存的地质储存要求。在这里，我们贡献了一种新的技术经济分析，根据到2040年的短期和长期技术发展预测氨的平准化电力成本（LCOE），从而填补了氨作为电力部门能源载体应用的知识空白。我们发现，到2040年，绿色氨可以在许多地方以低于400美元/吨的价格获得，如果电解槽实现乐观的成本降低，或者当更有利的可再生资源用于供应全球绿色氨市场时，则有可能降低到300美元/吨以下。我们通过在联合循环燃气轮机（CCGT）中的燃烧模拟氨发电，作为一种有前途的低成本、可调度发电的途径。在发电厂容量系数低于25%时，这在具有高可变可再生电力的电力部门中可能越来越常见，临界点出现在400美元/吨氨燃料价格附近，以使绿色氨能够与其他突出形式的可调度低碳或零碳技术竞争，例如天然气、生物能源或具有燃烧后CCS的燃煤发电厂。
Green ammonia, synthesized from air, water, and renewable energy, is a carbon-free energy storage vector with numerous potential energy applications, including dispatchable green electricity for the power sector. Due to the low cost of storing and transporting ammonia, green ammonia can be available as an energy source in all geographies, without the geological storage requirements of carbon capture and storage (CCS) or underground hydrogen storage. Here we contribute a novel techno-economic analysis to forecast the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from ammonia based on near-term and long-term technological developments to 2040, thus filling the knowledge gap for the application of ammonia as an energy vector in the electricity sector. We find that green ammonia could be available in many locations for less than 400 USD/t in 2040 with potential to be reduced to below 300 USD/t if electrolyzers achieve optimistic cost reductions, or when more favorable renewable resources are used to supply a global green ammonia market. We model ammonia-to-power via combustion in combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) as a promising route to low-cost, dispatchable electricity generation. At power plant capacity factors below 25%, which may be increasingly common in electricity sectors with high variable renewable electricity, a tipping point occurs around 400 USD/t ammonia fuel price to enable green ammonia to compete with other prominent forms of dispatchable, low or zero-carbon technologies, such as gas, bio-energy, or coal fired power plants with post-combustion CCS.