A Paleo Perspective of Alabama and Florida (USA) Interstate Streamflow
A Paleo Perspective of Alabama and Florida (USA) Interstate Streamflow
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DOI：
10.3390/w13050657
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发表时间：
2021-02
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
M. Vines;G. Tootle;L. Terry;E. Elliott;J. Corbin;G. Harley;J. Kam;S. Sadeghi;M. Therrell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Vines;G. Tootle;L. Terry;E. Elliott;J. Corbin;G. Harley;J. Kam;S. Sadeghi;M. Therrell
季节性重建的径流是有价值的，因为它们提供水规划者，决策者和利益相关者的范围和变化的水资源的观测期之前的信息。在这项研究中，我们使用的流量数据从五个计附近的阿拉巴马州，佛罗里达州的边界和几个世纪之久的树木年轮年表创建和分析季节性流量重建。预筛选方法包括预测因子的相关性和时间稳定性分析，以确保实际和可靠的重建。季节相关性分析表明，几个区域树木年轮年表与3 - 10月径流量显着相关（p ≤ 0.05），并使用逐步线性回归进行重建。乔克托瓦奇河、科内库河、埃斯坎比亚河、佩尔迪多河和帕斯卡古拉河的重建时间分别为1203-1985年、1652-1983年、1725-1993年、1867-2011年和1238-1985年，所有这些河流都具有统计学意义（R2 ≥ 0.50）。使用以下参数对重建进行统计学验证：R2预测验证、符号检验、方差膨胀因子（VIF）和Durbin-Watson（D-W）统计量。对乔克托瓦奇河、科内库河、埃斯坎比亚河和佩尔迪多河的长期径流变化进行了分析，并将最近（21世纪初）的干旱确定为仪器记录中最严重的干旱。2000年代的干旱也被确定为整个五条河流重建古记录中最严重的干旱之一。这一信息对于审议系统内的当前和未来状况至关重要。
Seasonal reconstructions of streamflow are valuable because they provide water planners, policy makers, and stakeholders with information on the range and variability of water resources before the observational period. In this study, we used streamflow data from five gages near the Alabama-Florida border and centuries-long tree-ring chronologies to create and analyze seasonal flow reconstructions. Prescreening methods included correlation and temporal stability analysis of predictors to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Seasonal correlation analysis revealed that several regional tree-ring chronologies were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) with March–October streamflow, and stepwise linear regression was used to create the reconstructions. Reconstructions spanned 1203–1985, 1652–1983, 1725–1993, 1867–2011, and 1238–1985 for the Choctawhatchee, Conecuh, Escambia, Perdido, and Pascagoula Rivers, respectively, all of which were statistically skillful (R2 ≥ 0.50). The reconstructions were statistically validated using the following parameters: R2 predicted validation, the sign test, the variance inflation factor (VIF), and the Durbin–Watson (D–W) statistic. The long-term streamflow variability was analyzed for the Choctawhatchee, Conecuh, Escambia, and Perdido Rivers, and the recent (2000s) drought was identified as being the most severe in the instrumental record. The 2000s drought was also identified as being one of the most severe droughts throughout the entire reconstructed paleo-record developed for all five rivers. This information is vital for the consideration of present and future conditions within the system.