Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia
Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia
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2015 年斯洛伐克夏季高温对人类死亡率的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
M. Trizna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Výberči;L. Labudová;Milada Eštóková;P. Faško;M. Trizna
2015年，中欧经历了一个异常温暖的夏季。对斯洛伐克周围的绝大多数气候站来说，这是它们整个仪器观察期有记录以来最热的夏天。在这项研究中，我们调查了炎热的天的序列在特定的夏季对斯洛伐克人口的死亡率影响。考虑到现有死亡率数据的范围，对1996-2015年期间2015年的情况进行了分析。从气象角度来看，在给定的20年期间，2015年的夏季热浪是迄今为止最严重的，显然也是最致命的，总共造成近540人死亡。就影响而言，8月份持续10天的异常高温尤为显著。在正常情况下，高温的巨大致命影响可能会更加严重，因为由于今年第一季度的非标准死亡率模式，过早死亡人数似乎部分减少了。斯洛伐克2015年夏季极端温暖的高温天气之所以引人注目，不仅仅是因为其短期死亡率。看来，与之前的强流感季节相结合，它们随后影响了该国在随后几个月直至年底的死亡率。以上所述的影响对于选定的人口亚组（男性和女性、老年人）是相当不同的。无论是单独还是作为年度死亡周期的一部分，2015年夏季热浪可能是公共卫生方面特别有价值的信息来源。
In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days’ sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996–2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.