Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
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发表时间：
2021-03-08
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Pechlivanidis, Ilias G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lopez, Marc Girons;Crochemore, Louise;Pechlivanidis, Ilias G.
可能的季节预报对于许多需要长期规划的用水密集型活动很重要。在用于季节预报的不同技术中，集合径流预报（ESP）方法由于其对过去气象记录的单一依赖性而长期被采用。瑞典气象和水文研究所目前正在其业务警报服务范围内扩大使用长期预报，这需要对国家S-HYPE水文模型的不同方法的适宜性和适用性进行彻底分析。为此，我们的目标是评估技能的ESP预测超过39 493集水区在瑞典，了解他们的时空格局，并探讨主要的水文过程驱动预测技能。我们发现，ESP的预测一般是熟练的大部分国家长达3个月的未来，但存在很大的时空变化。在瑞典北方，除了高度管制的水力发电河流外，冬季的预报是最熟练的。预测技能和15个不同的水文签名之间的关系表明，预测是最熟练的反应缓慢，基流为主的集水区和最不熟练的华而不实的集水区。最后，我们表明，预测技能模式可以在空间上聚集在7个独特的区域具有相似的水文行为。总的来说，这些结果有助于确定哪些地区和季节以及未来ESP水文预报提供的附加值，不仅为国家预报和预警服务，而且最重要的是，指导水电管理和降低风险等关键服务的决策。
Probabilistic seasonal forecasts are important for many water-intensive activities requiring long-term planning. Among the different techniques used for seasonal forecasting, the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) approach has long been employed due to the singular dependence on past meteorological records. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute is currently extending the use of long-range forecasts within its operational warning service, which requires a thorough analysis of the suitability and applicability of different methods with the national S-HYPE hydrological model. To this end, we aim to evaluate the skill of ESP forecasts over 39 493 catchments in Sweden, understand their spatio-temporal patterns, and explore the main hydrological processes driving forecast skill. We found that ESP forecasts are generally skilful for most of the country up to 3 months into the future but that large spatio-temporal variations exist. Forecasts are most skilful during the winter months in northern Sweden, except for the highly regulated hydropower-producing rivers. The relationships between forecast skill and 15 different hydrological signatures show that forecasts are most skilful for slow-reacting, baseflow-dominated catchments and least skilful for flashy catchments. Finally, we show that forecast skill patterns can be spatially clustered in seven unique regions with similar hydrological behaviour. Overall, these results contribute to identifying in which areas and seasons and how long into the future ESP hydrological forecasts provide an added value, not only for the national forecasting and warning service, but also, most importantly, for guiding decision making in critical services such as hydropower management and risk reduction.