Differential Paths to Parity: A Study of the Contemporary Arms Race
Differential Paths to Parity: A Study of the Contemporary Arms Race
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实现平等的不同途径：当代军备竞赛研究
DOI：
10.2307/1963366
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发表时间：
1984
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
M. Ward
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Ward
本文提出了1952年至1978年苏联和美国军备支出和军备积累的模型。它认为，当代超级大国在评估它们必须分配军事资源的潜在威胁时，即在决定军事预算时，并不仅仅对彼此的军事预算作出反应。相反，它们主要对战略和常规军事力量的相对平衡作出反应。建立并估计了该过程的连续时间模型。如果我们只检查这两个国家的预算，就会发现似乎没有种族冲突发生；相反，苏联只是在增加他们的武器开支，而不管美国做什么。然而，当人们审视军事能力的相对存量时，苏联似乎正在竞相追赶美国。最后，支配美国和苏联之间军备竞争的动力似乎正在发生显著变化。
This article presents a model of arms expenditures and arms accumulation for the Soviet Union and United States from 1952 through 1978. It argues that contemporary superpowers do not react solely to the military budgets of one another in assessing the potential threat against which they must allocate military resources, i.e., in deciding upon the military budget. Rather, they respond primary to the relative balance of strategic and conventional military forces. A continuous time model of this process is developed and estimated. If one examines only the budgets of these two nations, it would appear that no race is occurring; rather, the Soviets are simply increasing their arms expenditures irrespective of what the United States does. However, when one examines the relative stocks of military capabilities, it appears that the USSR is racing to catch up to the United States. Finally, the dynamics governing arms competition between the United States and the USSR appear to be undergoing marked change.