A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown and Smart Tracing∗
A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown and Smart Tracing∗
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COVID-19 封锁和智能追踪的简单规划问题*
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
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通讯作者：
David Argente
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作者：
F. Álvarez;David Argente
我们研究的最优封锁政策的规划者谁控制的死亡人数的流行病，同时最小化输出成本的封锁。该政策取决于感染者和易感者在人群中的比例，规定在疫情爆发后两周开始严格封锁，一个月后覆盖60%的人口，并在3个月后逐渐撤回到20%的人口。最佳封锁的强度取决于感染者死亡率的梯度，以及抗体检测的可用性，这将产生GDP的2%的福利收益。我们讨论两个扩展：第一种方法赋予计划者一个测试-追踪-检疫工具，我们证明它可以补充封锁并提高效率。第二个研究假设在不久的将来会有更好的技术来应对这一流行病，并在此基础上研究最佳封锁。第一稿，2020年3月23日。我们从Andrew Atkeson、Gadi Barlevy、Mike Golosov、Fausto Gozzi、Francois Gourio、Lars汉森、Kiminori松山、Magne Mogstad、Steve Mohr、凯西·穆里根、Tom Mogstan、Filip Rozsypal、Fabiano Schivardi、Rob Shimer、Daniele Terlizzese、Fabrice Tourre、Marcelo Veracierto、Ivan Werning以及HELP的小组成员和参与者的评论中受益匪浅！（卫生与流行病经济学小组）研讨会、世界银行发展政策与新型冠状病毒电子研讨会、芝加哥联邦储备银行虚拟宏观研讨会、芝加哥大学经济学虚拟研讨会、OVPR的新型冠状病毒论坛社会科学焦点、瑞典央行、法兰西银行虚拟研讨会、宾夕法尼亚州立大学虚拟研讨会和墨西哥银行虚拟研讨会。我们感谢安迪·阿特克森建议我们在简单规划问题的追踪-测试-检疫扩展上进行工作。作者声明，关于本文的研究，没有任何利益冲突需要披露。
We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who controls the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing the output costs of the lockdown. The policy depends on the fraction of infected and susceptible in the population, prescribing a severe lockdown beginning two weeks after the outbreak, covering 60% of the population after a month, and gradually withdrawing to 20% of the population after 3 months. The intensity of the optimal lockdown depends on the gradient of the fatality rate with respect to the infected, and the availability of antibody testing that yields a welfare gain of 2% of GDP. We discuss two extensions: the first endows the planner with a test-tracing-quarantine instrument, which we show to complement the lockdown and increase efficiency. The second studies optimal lockdown under the assumption that better technologies to deal with the epidemic will be available in the near future. ∗First draft, March 23, 2020. We benefited from the comments of Andrew Atkeson, Gadi Barlevy, Mike Golosov, Fausto Gozzi, Francois Gourio, Lars Hansen, Kiminori Matsuyama, Magne Mogstad, Steve Mohr, Casey Mulligan, Tom Phelan, Filip Rozsypal, Fabiano Schivardi, Rob Shimer, Daniele Terlizzese, Fabrice Tourre, Marcelo Veracierto, Ivan Werning, and panelists and participants on the HELP! (Health and Pandemics Economics Group) seminar, the World Bank’s Development Policy and Covid-19 e-seminar, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Virtual Macro Seminar, University of Chicago Economics Virtual Seminar, OVPR’s COVID-19 Forum Social Sciences Focus, the Riksbank, the Banque de France Virtual Seminar, the Pennsylvania State University Virtual Seminar, and the Bank of Mexico Virtual Seminar. We are grateful to Andy Atkeson for suggesting us to work on the tracing-testing-quarantine extension of our simple planning problem. The authors declare to have no conflict of interest to disclose regarding the research on this paper.