The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states
The macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules in the US states
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jpubeco.2005.02.005
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发表时间：
2006-01-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Mihov, I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fatás, A;Mihov, I
财政政策限制常常被批评为限制了政府对商业周期波动作出反应的能力，因此，采取数量限制被视为不可避免地导致宏观经济波动加剧。在本文中，我们使用来自美国48个州的数据来研究预算规则如何影响财政政策结果。我们的主要发现是：(1)严格的预算限制导致较低的政策波动性（即在实施财政政策时较少积极地使用自由裁量权）；(2)财政限制降低了财政政策对产出冲击的反应能力。这两个结果应该对产出波动性产生相反的影响。虽然自由裁量权的减少应该会降低波动性，但财政政策的反应性降低可能会放大商业周期。我们为第一种效应提供了实证支持：通过减少财政政策的自由裁量权，限制可以减少宏观经济波动。(c) 2005 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
Fiscal policy restrictions are often criticized for limiting the ability of governments to react to business cycle fluctuations and, consequently, the adoption of quantitative restrictions is viewed as inevitably leading to increased macroeconomic volatility. In this paper, we use data from 48 US states to investigate how budget rules affect fiscal policy outcomes. Our key findings are that (1) strict budgetary restrictions lead to lower policy volatility (i.e. less aggressive use of discretion in conducting fiscal policy) and (2) fiscal restrictions reduce the responsiveness of fiscal policy to Output shocks. These two results Should have opposite effects on output volatility. While less discretion should reduce volatility, less responsiveness of fiscal policy might amplify business cycles. We provide empirical support for the first effect: restrictions, by reducing discretion in fiscal policy, can reduce macroeconomic volatility. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.