Predicting Hurricane Power Outages to Support Storm Response Planning
Predicting Hurricane Power Outages to Support Storm Response Planning
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DOI：
10.1109/access.2014.2365716
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Gao, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guikema, Seth David;Nateghi, Roshanak;Gao, Michael
飓风经常在美国沿海地区造成大范围和长时间的停电。这些停电对依赖电力的其他基础设施和生活在受影响地区的人口产生了重大影响。电力公司、其他依赖电力的公用事业公司、私人公司以及地方、州和联邦政府机构的高效和有效的应急响应规划受益于在飓风来临之前对停电程度和空间分布的准确估计。已经开发了一些模型，用于在飓风来临之前预测停电，但这些模型都是针对特定的公用事业服务区，限制了它们用于支持更广泛的应急计划。在本文中，我们仅使用公开数据描述了适用于整个美国海岸线的飓风停电预测模型的发展，我们展示了飓风桑迪模型的使用，我们使用该模型来估计包括台风海燕在内的一些历史风暴对当前美国能源基础设施的影响。
Hurricanes regularly cause widespread and prolonged power outages along the U.S. coastline. These power outages have significant impacts on other infrastructure dependent on electric power and on the population living in the impacted area. Efficient and effective emergency response planning within power utilities, other utilities dependent on electric power, private companies, and local, state, and federal government agencies benefit from accurate estimates of the extent and spatial distribution of power outages in advance of an approaching hurricane. A number of models have been developed for predicting power outages in advance of a hurricane, but these have been specific to a given utility service area, limiting their use to support wider emergency response planning. In this paper, we describe the development of a hurricane power outage prediction model applicable along the full U.S. coastline using only publicly available data, we demonstrate the use of the model for Hurricane Sandy, and we use the model to estimate what the impacts of a number of historic storms, including Typhoon Haiyan, would be on current U.S. energy infrastructure.